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Summary Cam Harvey, a professor at Duke University, downplays the risk of recession currently forecast by the negative spread of the 3-month yield less its 10-year counterpart. The yield curve (and its variations) still deserves to be on the short list of analytics for monitoring and fo...
Summary The inversion of 80% of the 10 economically important yield curves suggests a recession is likely. While many hope the Federal Reserve will “pivot,” such may not be as immediately “bullish” as many expect. As yields plummet, bond prices rise as in...
Summary Assuming the Fed follows through on hiking the Federal Funds Rate by another 0.5% tomorrow, the probability will resume rising rapidly. There are clearly building levels of distress in several sectors of the U.S. economy. 98% of CEOs surveyed by the Conference Board say they...
Summary Perspective is the number one biggest shortcoming in the coverage of financial and market news. I examine perspectives on inflation, rates and recessions. Lack of perspective stems from two causes: the lack of (or willingness to dig for) historical comparisons, or the...
Summary Recession is foretold, in our view, as central banks crush demand to bring down inflation. We think markets are wrong to expect them to later come to the rescue. U.S. stocks fell and the Treasury yield curve inverted its most since the early 1980s. We see recent moves as reflect...
Summary Overall, I think the markets had gotten to peak hawkishness and people were under-positioned because they were expecting a more and more hawkish Fed. This may be the tightest labor market, quite frankly, we’ve seen in five decades. This is the first proper recessionar...
Summary Leverage can be the road to riches or the road to the poor house. Retail leveraged products, fully understood, can be the way to accumulate wealth over time under the right market conditions. Leveraged investments need constant attention to be protected from lethal downside ...
Summary This article explains how we use the ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF and SPDR S&P Biotech ETF in our aggressive growth portfolio (“AGP”). The key is to stay disciplined, and we follow two simple rules: the volatility index and the valuation. You will see that th...
Summary Today, the yield curve is more inverted than at any time since the early 1980s, so many are saying that means the chances of a recession are pretty high. Yes, today the curve is very inverted, but real yields are not particularly high. Low spreads suggest the market is relat...
Summary At least one of two things should happen to warn that an official US recession is about to begin. One is a decline in the ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (NOI) to below 48 and the other is a reversal of the yield curve’s trend from flattening/inverting to steepening. ...
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2024-07-29 10:42:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
A look at the top 10 most actives in the United States NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) fell 1.7% to $112.28 on volume of 455,296,152 shares Ford Motor Company (F) fell 18.4% to $11.16 on volume of 256,384,806 shares PROSHARES TRUST (SQQQ) rose 3.4% to $9.37 on volume of 246,885,889 shares Sel...
2024-07-06 10:18:00 ET The ProShares Ultra QQQ ETF (NASDAQ: TQQQ) has only been around for about 14 years, but it has already been a millionaire-making ETF. In fact, a $10,000 investment in 2010 would be worth more than $1.8 million today. Here's how it has done so well, and what in...