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Overview: Interest rates are lurching lower. The US 10-year yield is at new two-year lows, but the driver is European bonds where peripheral yields are 6-7 bp lower, though Italy's benchmark is off 12 bp, while core yields are down 2-3 bp to new record lows. The German benchmark is almost m...
It was supposed to be the Chinese government that was going to rescue the global economy. Once the rationalizations ended and officials around the world realized there was serious economic weakness building at the end of 2018 instead of a globally synchronized inflationary recovery, the green ...
Originally Published July 2, 2019 With the 10-year plummeting below 2% again and the 3-month yield spiking up by over 7 basis points (bps), which is its biggest one day gain since December 2017, the yield curve is cratering today. Today's 11-bps move further into inverted territory is the ...
By Blu Putnam At a Glance Economic data on jobs, inflation and GDP are among the upcoming reports the Fed will be watching Any surprises in key data could seal the deal for a rate cut at The Federal Reserve July 30-31 meeting CME Group’s FedWatch Tool expects a rate ...
On the heels of the Osaka trade truce struck between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping over the weekend, investors got the relief rally they were looking for on Monday. Gains were especially pronounced in tech and chip stocks, which surged thanks to the Trump administration's softer approach to the ...
From all the jawboning you're likely hearing, you might be inclined to think that inflation's been pretty much strangled. If you track the Consumer Price Index ((CPI)), you've probably noticed that growth in the headline number has stayed below 2 percent this year. That's not to say there's NO...
The yield on the 10-year United States Treasury note is hanging around 2.1 percent. What picture of the future might this market price be reflecting? Daniel Kruger, of the Wall Street Journal, presents us with the interesting perspective of Steven Major, the global head of fixed-income r...
Most investors may be surprised to know that historically the 10-Yr/2-Yr and 10-Yr/3-Mo yield curve spreads tend to invert in tandem. Specifically, until this business cycle, the 10-Yr/2-Yr spread has consistently inverted prior to the 10-yr/3-Mo. This relationship goes back to the 1970s whe...
David Beckworth: Our guests today are Sam Bell and Skanda Amarnath. Sam and Skanda along with Kim Stiens are part of a new organization called Employ America, a new research and advocacy organization that aims to get better labor market outcomes. Sam was also known on FOMC Twitter as an infl...
Why Worry About Inflation? The usual end of a boom is when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in order to choke off inflation. We'd thus like to keep an eye upon the Fed raising interest rates, bringing the economic growth to a halt for a while. The obvious reason being that stocks, e...