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The BCI at 255.2 is up from last week's downward revised 254.7, and remains below the previous high of this business cycle indicated by the BCIp of 78.4. However, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 9.8 is below last week’s 10.2. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recessi...
Perhaps one particularly surprising thing this year has been the lack of surprise - that is, upside surprise in inflation. Last year, central banks around the world were hiking interest rates and beginning to normalize balance sheets, as sights were set squarely on upside risks to inflation. B...
By Kevin Flanagan Throughout my travels, one overarching question people ask me is, Why is the Federal Reserve (Fed) so intent on cutting rates? It's a great question, don't you think? I mean, let's put it in some perspective. If I were to say to you that the unemployment rate is essential...
Originally Published July 15, 2019 By Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist Weekly Market Compass: Some want the Federal Reserve to cut 50 basis points, but I believe 25 basis points is a better target There is a famous Rolling Stones song that provides ...
"No thief, however skillful, can rob one of knowledge, and that is why knowledge is the best and safest treasure to acquire." - L. Frank Baum, The Lost Princess of Oz When something does not make sense, then you have to dive into your barrel of knowledge to make sense of it. Greece is abou...
By James L. Caton Much drama has surrounded the Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell in recent months. Some leading indicators may be signalling a coming recession. In particular, a deepening inversion of the yield curve is cause for concern. Pressure is mounting from President Trump...
The data is improving and that should be a good thing. I've variously argued (both on this platform and on my site) that the most important takeaway from last week was also the simplest. US equities hit new highs even has bond yields rose. Here's a simple chart I used in my traditional Su...
By Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. Ohio State's Woody Hayes used to say that his problem with the forward pass was that "Three things can happen, and two of them are bad." Well, after Chairman Powell's testimony last week, the FOMC may find itself in a similar position, only maybe worse. The Commi...
The market is now at record highs, and unemployment is way down. Even so, a U.S. rate cut is expected as early as this week. During his congressional testimony last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell raised concerns over slower global growth and trade tensions, which in turn have con...
There are growing signs that the global economic slowdown is for real. As was the case in 1929, the combination of the peak of the credit cycle coupled with trade protectionism in the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act are similar conditions to those of today and potentially pose a serious economic chall...