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By George P. Maris, CFA Markets sold off sharply this week after a sudden escalation in the U.S.-China trade war. George Maris, Co-Head of Equities - Americas, explains why the reaction was so severe and offers insight on how investors can navigate this period of uncertainty. Transcrip...
By Joshua Cummings, CFA Consumer Research Analyst Joshua Cummings explains what really spooked markets about the recent escalation of the U.S.-China trade conflict. Markets reacted negatively - and for good reason - to last week's news that the Trump administration would introduce tari...
It is no longer absurd to think that the nominal yield on U.S. Treasury securities could go negative. Last week the German 30-year government bond yield dipped into negative territory for the first time ever. Around $14 trillion of outstanding bonds worldwide, or 25% of the market, now trade a...
It is a capital mistake to theorize in advance of the facts. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts. - Sherlock Holmes I believe I have finally figured out why so many people, and institutional money managers, are arriving at wrong conc...
This is not a year in which investors have needed to hedge their equity risk. As of this writing, stocks have not only rallied, they've rallied with a consistency last seen in 2017, at least until the last day of July and the first of August. But as investors look to protect gains and season...
There's nothing wrong with central banks paying negative interest rates on bank reserves. There is something very wrong with a monetary regime that causes equilibrium nominal interest rates to end up negative. That's one way of thinking about my recent Econlog post . Yahoo has an interesti...
As a follow-up to my warnings last month prior to the recent correction (" US Stock Market Showing Tech-Bubble Divergence " and " Is a Bad Moon Rising for the Stock Market? "), several areas are at make-or-break inflection points that we are watching closely for signs of a bottom in the overal...
Nina Karnaukh of Ohio State sent along this lovely graph of the 6-month Fed Funds futures around the beginning of August. Read this as the market's guess about what is happening to the Federal Funds rate over the next 6 months. The first drop in price occurs with the FOMC announcement at 2 P...
It was nearly five years ago, in late 2014, that I wrote a piece titled, " Here's Why The Long Bond Could Be About To Blast Off ." At the time, I argued that the combination of relative value and extreme negative sentiment was very constructive for bond prices. And it wasn't long before this i...
By Peter Ireland As expected, the Federal Reserve reversed course last week, lowering interest rates by one-quarter percentage point and thereby undoing the last in a series of nine rate hikes that began in December 2015. My previous essay for E21 described how this policy turnaround can...