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2023-06-29 20:10:00 ET Summary Investors and market “pundits” pay a great deal of attention to “market sentiment” because, regardless of the quantitative facts on the ground, what investors believe also matters a great deal, at least in the short term. ...
2023-06-07 02:10:00 ET Summary The run higher in the Nasdaq has become insane. It’s an “echo bubble” from the bubble that popped in November 2021. All of the classic “blow off top” indicators are flashing again. The VIX is back to where it was in...
2023-05-30 21:30:00 ET Summary A new Nasdaq Volatility Correlation sell signal was triggered last week, indicating a potential trend reversal. Disconnects between equities and options markets can be important signals for impending trend reversals. The options market is not as ...
2023-05-12 01:00:00 ET Summary Market participants' expectations, as reflected in implied volatility, maybe a more accurate reflection of future price movements than past price movements. When it comes to short-term moves, currencies have the most liquid short-dated volatility mar...
2023-04-25 11:41:00 ET Summary The month of April has seen the S&P 500 move within less than a 100-point range during regular sessions, adding only a few points more if one were to include overnight futures trading. It is absurd for the Fed to be hiking interest rates next wee...
2023-04-18 04:29:00 ET Summary On Friday, the S&P 500 Volatility index (VIX) saw a new 2023 closing low vs. the S&P 500 itself. The last time the VIX got that low there was a drawdown on the S&P 500 from 4195.44 to 3808.86 on the Monday after the SVB failure. Unles...
2023-04-13 00:59:00 ET Summary Given market uncertainty and the risk of a US recession, is now the time for defensive stocks? We think that reducing exposure to risk assets while increasing exposure to defensive equities with lower volatility and higher potential dividends may hel...
2023-03-16 12:00:00 ET Summary Return volatility has a periodic tendency to cluster and also cycles from high to low and back again through time. Market volatility has recently spiked and briefly clustered but has been sliding over the last several weeks and is currently approachi...
Summary If the Fed won’t follow the bond market, maybe the bond market will follow the Fed. Last year’s decline in stocks was not about earnings but about rising interest rates. Shorting options tend to suppress volatility indexes, which is one reason why the VIX has b...
Summary Conventional wisdom these days is that in order for the Fed to bring inflation down, they are going to have to kneecap the economy. Looking back at last year as a whole, real GDP shrank at a 1.1% annualized rate in the first half of the year, and grew at a 3.1% annualized rate i...