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Inflationary pressures have eased in recent months thanks to reduced supply-chain frictions and the commodity market coming off the boil. Slower input cost inflation reflected an easing of pressures among both manufacturers and service providers. With staff shortages continuing gl...
Economic slowdown but no recession! That message comes from the latest employment report, service sector data, and Federal Reserve. While James Bullard and others currently directing the monetary policy regime suggest they can quell inflation with only an economic slowdown, history su...
CPI numbers show an easing of inflation. Will the Fed keep raising rates? China inflation sits at 2.7%. Does that impact their government policies? A 45% recession likelihood projection. What’s driving that number? Inflation, recession, and China are the key topic...
Structural recessions are lengthy, tumultuous upheavals that can set the stage for excellent long-term expansion or unraveling and collapse. Recessions that cleanse the system of financial deadwood are necessary and yield excellent results. If the economy and society persevere thr...
The entire notion that there is a hard and fast line indicating "recession" is not realistic or useful. The more useful approach is to look at data points as mostly signal noise that fail to reflect or illuminate the core dynamics of the economy. If we're not measuring or ponderin...
The global business climate is deteriorating in mid-2022, putting forecasters on recession watch. Real global GDP is likely to have declined in the second quarter of 2022, pulled down by contractions in emerging Europe, mainland China, and the United States. Adverse financial cond...
It should come as little surprise that something as simple as identifying the start of a recession would generate controversy. Everything has become politicized. The tremendous number of open jobs has been another unusual feature of the post-pandemic and newly-christened recession, ac...
Why U.S. GDP data may not be painting an accurate picture of the economy. There is a growing divide between Gross Domestic Product and Gross Domestic Income. Is worrying about a recession making a slowdown more likely? There has been extensive speculation about t...
Compounding interpretation of the data now is the issue of the pandemic and the consequences of an ill-advised global economic shutdown. Some economists contend two quarters of negative GDP alone is not a sufficient indication of a recession. Certainly, some market sectors and ind...
Whether the U.S. is actually in a recession is debatable, but high inflation will affect companies both positively and negatively. The release of second-quarter Gross Domestic Product numbers late last month set off a debate around the state of the U.S. economy and whether it is curre...
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