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2023-07-29 02:40:00 ET Summary The latest round of U.S. data has been strong, the Fed has hiked rates again, and Fed analysts apparently have thrown in the towel on recession risks. If we start to look at developed countries starting in the mid-1990s - so a 30-year historical wind...
2023-07-26 13:08:00 ET Summary For those who pay attention to risk/reward dynamics, the prospective compensation for equity risk over Treasury bonds is today the lowest since the market peak in 2007-08. US Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator (LEI below in red since 1967) c...
2023-07-25 10:00:00 ET Summary As expected, the probability that a recession will start in the U.S. economy has breached the 80% threshold over the past six weeks. On July 2023 meeting, the Fed looks set to implement another quarter-point rate hike in the Federal Funds Rate. T...
2023-07-24 06:13:43 ET Summary The yield curve, which looks at the spread between the 10-year treasury note and the year bill, has been an excellent predictor of coming recessions since 1960, with only one error made in the mid-1960s. Despite its strong track record, the yield cur...
2023-07-22 05:13:00 ET Summary The Federal Reserve has tightened monetary policy significantly over the first half of this year, with a high likelihood of another 25-basis-point hike in the federal funds rate at the end of July. Until now, market agents have mostly ignored politic...
2023-07-19 09:02:00 ET Summary Although central banks slashed benchmark rates to zero by December 2008 and pumped unprecedented liquidity (QE), financial markets tanked until March 2009. The US Fed will likely pause its tightening efforts soon. But the economic cycle and stock mar...
2023-07-19 04:54:00 ET Summary The yield curve is the difference between the current 10-year T-Note yield and the 2-Year T-Note yield. The Fed Funds Rate is the rate the Fed sets on overnight money to establish the demand for money necessary to get inflation to its 2% target. ...
2023-07-17 07:35:00 ET Summary Is the Fed responsible for the drop in the inflation rate? If not, what does that imply about future policy and inflation? The 10-year/3-month Treasury spread has been inverted since last year, and that has been a reliable predictor of recession in t...
2023-07-17 07:00:00 ET Summary Economically or cyclically oriented sectors have performed the best this year. The equity market is telegraphing a recovering or expanding economic environment. With the economy possibly set to regain some momentum, favorable returns seem a likel...
2023-07-16 05:30:00 ET Summary Obviously, AI has supercharged the indexes, for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. Small businesses tend to feel the impact of monetary tightening with a lag compared to larger companies. The Fed, although they haven’t come out and said it, t...
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