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The VIX-yield curve cycle is a powerful economic phenomena that has persisted since at least the end of the 1980s. Recessions happen following periods of tight monetary policy, characterized by flat yield curves and high levels of equity volatility. Fed tightening is beginning to ...
Three economic reports released on Thursday point to a rising possibility that a recession is near for the US economy. Looking at a broader set of US economic data still reflects growth in terms of modeling business-cycle conditions. We may be approaching the point of no return re...
The US economy has clearly slowed from its rapid 2021 growth and there are plenty of reasons to fear a recession some time in the next year or two. Even if reported GDP shows two negative quarters in the first half of 2022, the NBER committee is very unlikely to conclude that a recess...
The Treasury yield curve is widely used as a first approximation of estimating recession risk. This is usually limited to one or two sets of maturities. Expanding the analysis across the yield curve also provides useful information about the business cycle. All models and indicato...
Small-cap stocks have had a difficult year so far, along with most of the equity market. This has allowed inverse funds like TZA to post strong gains. While the momentum has been on the side of the bears, that is starting to shift. If recession fears ease, TZA is going to see substant...
The markets don’t seem to be necessarily debating whether the U.S. economy will enter into a Fed-induced recession but rather just how shallow or deep any downturn may ultimately be. Yield curve may need to reveal a much more noteworthy inversion before signaling a recession co...
The global economy and financial markets have suffered a dreadful H1 2022, ravaged by a severe commodity shock, strict COVID-19 lockdowns in the world’s second-largest economy, and one of the most aggressive Fed tightening cycles in recent history. H2 looks equally tough. In it...
With prices rising 9.1% year-over-year and outpacing growth in wages, it may be like a recession for those who feel their purchasing power eroding. Thus far in 2022, employment growth has remained robust. With high inflation, it’s clear that consumers in the U.S. and many o...
Currently, the popular view is that the recession will be short and shallow. Well, it might be, but it’s appropriate to consider the outcomes. Industrial prices lead wholesale, retail, and consumer prices. The JOC-ECRI Industrial Price Index fell -3.14% this week and is down -9...
On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index came in at a 9.1% annual rate. The higher-than-expected reading puts the CPI at a new 41-year high. Businesses are also getting squeezed. On Thursday, the Producer Price Index showed wholesale costs rising at a massive 11.3% year-over-year. T...
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