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Headline inflation numbers have been brutal, with the CPI rising at rates that would normally call for a fast, hard tightening. Price trends in the industrial and agricultural commodities space are generally flattening, with only iron ore continuing higher. As supply chains unkink...
One risk on investors’ minds hasn’t been much of a factor in nearly a decade: inflation. By the end of 2020, despite real assets regaining some ground, the return deficit was –6.8%. Actually, when evaluated on multiple dimensions—inflation sensitivity, ...
Policymakers at the Federal Reserve advised Wednesday that interest rates would rise from record lows sometime in 2023, updating an earlier forecast of rises not until 2024. In the absence of any other driving dynamic, markets are taking direction from the dollar. The positive tak...
The global commodities complex continued to receive strong investor support over the past month as the world economy entered unfamiliar territory. All forms of transportation are experiencing delays (some intermittently), including ocean freight, air freight, trucking and rail. Ri...
Metals prices have increased by 72 percent relative to their pre-pandemic levels - reaching a nine-year high in May (in inflation adjusted terms). Copper is up 89 percent in May (year-over-year), iron ore is up 116 percent, and nickel is up 41 percent. Energy commodities (oil, coa...
The intention of the Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum was to stop the long-term decline of the US steel industry by protecting domestic producers from low-cost imports. However, the strategy shifted a substantial cost to steel consumers, who employ far more workers than the s...
China’s “zero tolerance” warning to commodity speculators over the weekend sent prices of some metals and iron ore tumbling. Bloomberg reported the government had also threatened severe punishment for violators indulging in excessive speculation and fake news in t...
A bullish report in Reuters last week advising metal output in China was breaking records, again, looks at odds with developments this week. China’s primary production reached 3.35 million metric tons in April. That marked a 2.3% jump from 3.28 million tons in March. Furthermor...
Bitcoin has had two bear markets since mid-April. There was a 27% decline followed by a 27% rally, followed by last week’s rout. From its intraday peak in April to its intraday low last week, bitcoin fell over 53%. Is that the end of the sell-off? Doubts about the post-virus bo...
Top-of-cycle conditions could prove enduring for metals needed in the global energy transition. Electric vehicles will require four times as much copper as a regular petrol or diesel cars. The largest investment-grade miners have never been more disciplined in their capital alloca...
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