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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent shock waves throughout global metals markets. However, it’s important to remember that the most consistent longer-term driver of metal prices is Chinese demand. Recent PMI and flash data suggests that Chinese consumption is falling a...
We see specific themes in commodities that could benefit from the transition to a low carbon economy. On average, since 1997, commodities have historically outperformed the S&P 500 in the first 12 months after the beginning of a rate hiking cycle. Investors are increasingly us...
The economic implications of Russia’s war are potentially large and global. Domestic Chinese spending will be hit, owing to higher petrol and food prices that dampen consumption. Russia and Ukraine account for 14% of global wheat production and 30% of global wheat exports. ...
Buyers (countries, investors, and traders) are panicking as the commodity Wheat gained more than 40% last week. Commodity markets surged to their largest gains in years as Ukrainian ports were closed and sanctions against Russia sent buyers scrambling for replacement supplies. Giv...
We’ve noted over the past two months that the pace of US economic activity is set to slow markedly during the first half of this year. Note that a sign of the downward pressure on economic activity resulting from high inflation is the decline in ‘real’ wages. ...
War in Ukraine has fanned the flames of the metals market which was already stretched. There is still significant uncertainty and confusion around the various sanctions on Russia. If there is no quick de-escalation, upside risks will dominate especially for those with larger expos...
While nominal asset classes such as equities and fixed income have had a negative response to inflation surprises, real assets such as commodities have historically tended to be effective as inflation hedges. Over the past year, pandemic-induced supply shortages and demand spikes have...
The SWIFT ban applies to about 70% of Russia’s banking activities. Notably, oil and natural gas payments are excluded. Russia is a major supplier of base metals to Europe, and these have seen price rises to levels not seen in a decade. Plus, the rise in natural gas prices will ...
Russia imports large amounts of consumer goods, from cars and consumer electronics to food, and a ruble collapse guarantees a massive spike in consumer price inflation for people who earn their living in rubles. A major disruption of Russia’s exports of crude oil, natural gas, ...
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine represented a particularly challenging situation for financial markets last week, after they had already weakened on anxieties about high inflation and rising interest rates. When it comes to commodities, however, Russia is a major supplier: Raw mat...