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To date, 2021 has been as almost good as it gets for equity investors. Any slowdown in growth has yet to feed into consensus earnings forecasts which have continued to increase over the summer. Investors have few high-yielding alternatives for as long as real and nominal bond yiel...
Following the economic disruption of the COVID-19 pandemic and the unprecedented stimulus response, supply bottlenecks and a rebound in demand have been a feature of 2021. We observe that a diversified portfolio approach has had the highest correlation to upside inflation and the leas...
Energy equities retreated from their relative highs in June as the Delta variant spread, the value trade sputtered, and oil prices weakened following the OPEC+ announcement in July. While midstream sold off with oil and energy stocks, the fundamental picture for midstream improved in ...
The Baker Hughes Rig Count is higher by 5 oil rigs with the gas rig count unchanged. Crude Imports have risen from pre-COVID 1.6mil BBL/Day to 3-4mil BBL/Day as the US recovery progressed. With the economy continuing to expand and fossil fuel consumption globally returning to pre-...
OPEC reports crude only production for its members every month. As a part of OPEC the production from the sub-Saharan countries is relatively small, even if they do represent almost half the remaining members. For each of these countries there is a strong correlation between GDP a...
After the pandemic’s initial spending splurge, the bill is due, and global growth is mean-reverting again. Treasury yields are confirming the disinflationary ride as we thought that they should. Similar trends are unfolding in the great hot north, with Canadian government b...
The volatility of the dollar does present some problems for the world but, for better or worse, it is the world’s reserve currency and I see no real threat to that status on the horizon. I positioned our portfolios for a weak dollar period early last summer and maintained those...
UN report: The last decade was hotter than any period in 125,000 years, and humans are responsible. UN Secretary General called the report a "Code Red" for humanity and the death knell for fossil fuels. Shokeen: We project there will be rapid changes in the energy sector. Fo...
In US Real GDP, major government programs correlate with the highest rates of inflation while oil prices do so after inflation is apparent. In other words, investors price oil and related industries higher once they fear further inflation. The recent rise and fall of commodity pri...
Capital expenditure expectations appear to have recovered from pre-pandemic levels in most major regions and are trending upwards according to analyst estimates. For the U.S. index, the 12-month forward capital expenditures estimate is currently $885.6 billion, up 13.8% year-over-year...