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2023-05-04 04:15:00 ET Summary The Fed did what was discounted, and the challenge now is to prevent market expectations for cuts from going too deep. We find that low inflation breakevens support cuts, and we still expect these in 4Q. The ECB tightening cycle will continue aft...
2023-05-03 22:03:00 ET Summary The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by 25bp and signalled the threshold for justifying future rate increases is now higher than it was. With lending conditions rapidly tightening in the wake of recent bank stresses, we think this will mark ...
2023-05-03 21:35:00 ET Summary With today’s 25-basis-point rate increase, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has now hiked rates by a cumulative 500 basis points since March of 2022. Whether the Fed hikes rates again in June or goes on pause will likely depend on the labor mark...
2023-05-03 17:30:00 ET Summary The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the U-3 US unemployment rate as 3.5 percent in March 2023, which is near historic lows. Looking at the aggregate number of jobs accounted for in recent WARN filings across 39 US states, a similar pattern to wha...
2023-05-03 17:21:00 ET Summary The “new” Fed Funds trading range now stands at 5%–5.25%, its highest level since 2007. Up to now, the economy was showing signs of slowing, and investors could even see zero or negative readings for real GDP in upcoming quarters...
2023-05-03 11:27:00 ET Summary Expectations at the start of the year were quite pessimistic. However, growth has remained surprisingly resilient—along with inflation. U.S. core inflation is still quite high. So in the last three or four months, it's been running at a sort o...
2023-05-03 09:48:00 ET Summary Markets are expecting that the central bank will again lift rates at today’s policy meeting. The Treasury market’s implied forecast for the Fed funds rate is on board with the outlook. Fed policy is already modestly tight, based on ...
2023-05-03 01:55:00 ET Summary Leading indicators of recession continue to worsen, as do many financial/credit metrics, but the economy stubbornly refuses to decline. Inflation continued to be elevated in March and, importantly, remained well above the Fed’s long-term goal ...
2023-05-03 01:36:00 ET Summary Why there may be other small lenders set to fail. The Fed is sticking to plan and focusing on fighting inflation, and nothing else. Are niche banks bearing the brunt of interest rate hikes? JPMorgan Chase ( JPM ) has agreed ...
2023-05-02 12:42:00 ET Summary Why fixed income may be key for investors as economic conditions falter? Equity markets may be entering a period of increased volatility. Will debt-ceiling troubles impact U.S. debt for investors? The U.S. economy is growing at ...
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2024-05-28 18:56:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-29 00:42:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-19 06:10:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...