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2023-05-29 11:05:00 ET Summary I just refreshed my favourite U.S. breakeven inflation chart and was surprised by how placid pricing has been. Although the 10-year breakeven inflation rate scooted upwards after the pandemic, it is below where it was pre-Financial Crisis, and roughl...
2023-05-29 08:35:00 ET Summary The Bureau of Labor Statistics measures changes in housing costs in ways that change slowly and arrive too late. A long data lag makes these overweighted housing inflation estimates misleading. If we look at “CPI less shelter,” the ...
2023-05-29 06:50:00 ET Summary To make sense of today’s market conundrum, remember that things could have been worse than they are, and that investors are more defensive than they appear. Each time we run through all the reasons to be bearish on equities, we are struck by j...
2023-05-26 22:00:00 ET Summary The latest inflation data is not what Federal Reserve officials were hoping for. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is thought to be a better predictor of future inflation, also remained high. Fed officials may wor...
2023-05-26 22:00:00 ET Summary One of the great myths of finance, embedded over many decades of thinking, has been that the cost of oil, WTI, is a major factor for inflation. Blaming the Ukraine/Russia conflict on inflation became the norm after Feb 2022. Inflation is always a...
2023-05-25 14:10:00 ET Summary A US default likely won't happen. But it still could. Any imminent default would be on one of the four bills that mature between 1 to 13 June. Even if we get close to a default, rating downgrades are probable. An actual default, and it's a multi-notc...
2023-05-25 12:30:00 ET Summary The contrast could hardly be more striking. Fitch Ratings put the AAA credit rating for US debt on watch for a downgrade. Treasury yields will remain a crucial real-time measure of how the market is pricing in debt ceiling risk. The con...
2023-05-25 12:30:00 ET Summary There is a growing consensus among observers that a recession is almost inevitable. After all, hasn't almost every recession in the past 50 years been preceded by a deliberate tightening of monetary policy? The latest round of Fed tightening has ...
2023-05-25 08:01:00 ET Summary On Sunday night, President Joe Biden returned from the G-7 Summit, Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Biden connected, and by Monday morning talks resumed. We could see market turbulence in the coming days as the details are hammered out and the X-date draws...
2023-05-25 05:47:31 ET Summary The ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury fund is a leveraged ETF. The vehicle seeks daily investment results that correspond to two times (2x) the daily performance of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. Long rates have increased due to the d...
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2024-05-28 18:56:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-29 00:42:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-19 06:10:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...