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2023-06-14 04:41:00 ET Summary Monetary policy in 2023 is akin to 2010 and 2019, two recent years, where similar policy shifts occurred. After the latest CPI inflation data that was printed on Tuesday, it appears highly unlikely that the Fed will hike the fed funds rate another 25...
2023-06-13 15:30:00 ET Summary Inflation continues to fall, with CPI dropping from 4.96% to 4.13% on a YOY basis, increasing the probability of a Fed pause from 77% to 94%. The real rate of interest has turned positive, and the Fed is expected to pause and perhaps raise rates one ...
2023-06-13 13:04:00 ET Summary May’s US CPI at 4% - the lowest since March 2021 - has increased the prospects of a Fed pause tomorrow; a July hike remains possible. The good news for consumers (but not corporate profits) is that recessions are typically disinflationary and ...
2023-06-13 12:10:00 ET Summary Last week was a momentous one, as the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada both decided to hike rates after enacting conditional pauses. These hikes were important because central banks’ policy decisions can prove infectious, convi...
2023-06-12 22:12:00 ET Summary The US Treasury yield curve is at its most inverted since the 1980s. An inverted yield curve has been in place for five of the past six recessions. Fixed income has historically shown positive returns during recessionary periods. By M...
2023-06-12 21:54:00 ET Summary Interest-rate volatility on shorter-duration assets is running near historical highs, even as rate changes begin to level off. Interest-rate volatility typically coincides with strong fixed income returns. However, elevated volatility can be a signal...
2023-06-12 13:11:00 ET Summary The 10-year Treasury yield was modestly higher last week but the trend – or lack thereof – hasn’t changed. We look at sentiment in a lot of ways and there is no doubt that it is quite bullish right now so a correction of some kin...
2023-06-12 12:20:00 ET Summary The S&P 500 is entering "extreme overbought" territory, with its earnings yield dropping towards 5%, a level that usually signals a need for a correction. Fundamentals and technicals are aligning to tell investors the S&P 500 is getting exten...
2023-06-12 10:40:00 ET Summary BlackRock investment leaders at our Outlook Forum agreed the new regime is playing out. They eye assets that price that in and benefit from structural trends. Developed market (DM) stocks ticked up last week, led by U.S. tech. Bond yields rose as mar...
2023-06-12 03:22:00 ET Summary Considering the March banking crisis, non-financial debt growth was tepid for the second straight quarter. With its AAA rating and attractive liquidity profile, GSE obligations are the perfect asset for money market funds. A spike in yields would...
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2024-05-28 18:56:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-29 00:42:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-19 06:10:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...