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2023-12-28 11:30:00 ET Summary The 2024 slowdown will probably not be a recession, though that’s certainly a possibility. Yield curve inversion is one of the best leading indicators, measuring whether short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. Despite the general...
2023-12-28 04:30:00 ET Summary As all students of economics should have learned, prices are set at the margin by the intersection of supply and demand. The surge in the demand for currency has almost completely reversed from its early-covid levels. Corporations are not struggl...
2023-12-27 03:59:00 ET Summary The S&P 500 has made a new all-time-high on a total return basis, but it needs to break out decisively. Corporate defaults seem very well-contained, but corporate credit spreads are your “early warning” indicator for a deeper recess...
2023-12-27 01:31:27 ET Summary The Fed is signaling rate cuts starting next year. Interest is down on the news, and seems to have stabilized. An overview of where rates stand after the Fed pivot follows. Interest rate policy is starting to pivot, with the Federal Res...
2023-12-26 03:48:57 ET Summary Transitory "Demand-Pull" Inflation has decreased from 9% in June 2022 to 3% today. It was caused by temporary COVID-related supply shortages. The next wave of inflation, called "Cost-Push," is expected to be long-lasting and caused by excessive money...
2023-12-25 10:30:00 ET Summary For Q3, the consensus estimate from sell-side analysts tracking the stock market was for growth of just half a percent. Instead, the U.S. economy beat that number tenfold. As early as June, we saw year-over-year inflation in the United States that wa...
2023-12-25 05:30:00 ET Summary After years of underestimating inflation, Federal Reserve officials now appear to be overestimating it. Given the most recent inflation data, the FOMC should probably begin cutting its target rate in January. Fed officials should avoid erring in ...
2023-12-25 03:31:00 ET Summary It seems increasingly likely (though by no means a guarantee) that the economic downturn that did not happen this year will also not happen next year, putting Jay Powell in pole position to pull off what very few of his predecessors have - the “so...
2023-12-23 01:01:00 ET Summary The PCE price index for rent accelerated to 0.50% in November from October, or 6.2% annualized, and has been in the same range since March. The PCE price index for rent decelerated to 6.7% YoY. The overall PCE price index, driven down by the plun...
2023-12-21 06:27:00 ET Summary Outlook for markets in 2024. Why rate cuts may come fast next year. The outlook for earnings in 2024. As inflation trends lower, financial markets are betting that interest rate cuts may not be far behind. Michael Craig, Head of Asset...
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2024-07-09 08:50:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-28 19:00:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-29 00:46:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...