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The most recent high in the dollar index came during the first week of December when the nearby futures contract hit 99.30. The index made it back from a low at 88.15 in February 2018. In January 2017, the index had turned lower from 103.815. On October 1, the active month December dollar in...
Overview: The global capital markets are ending the week on a subdued note as the UK Parliament decision on Saturday is awaited. The weaker Chinese Q3 GDP had little impact outside of China, where stocks fell over 1%. A brief suspension of hostilities by Turkey was sufficient for the US to l...
By Petr Krpata, Chief EMEA FX and IR Strategist Our base case is that the Brexit deal will fail to get approved this Saturday. This, coupled with the pound already trading at a premium vs. the euro, suggests some reversal in sterling's gains. USD: Still a high bar for more prono...
After several months of discord, the U.S. bond market is finally returning to a state of normalcy. Plunging yields and runaway bond prices, coupled with the inversion of a key yield curve, were a source of angst for investors in much of 2019. However, the bond market’s return to health ...
Back in July, I made the argument that the Swedish krona is set to decline further against major currencies such as the EUR and USD. My main reason for arguing this was that GDP growth in Sweden had come in lower than expected, and there is a limit to the extent to which higher exports has i...
The eurozone's monetary problem We have a basic structural problem with the eurozone. Yes, it's entirely true that having the same currency across different economies increases the possibilities of trade. Not all that much if we're honest about it though. It was the creation of the Single Ma...
Overview: A Brexit deal between the UK and the EU has been struck. Whether it can win Parliament's approval is a horse of a different color. Meanwhile, US-Chinese relations continue to sour. The capital markets are narrowly mixed as investors await further developments. The MSCI Asia Pacific...
Overview: Fading hopes that a Brexit agreement can be struck is seeing sterling trade broadly lower, while China's demand that US tariffs be rescinded in exchange for a commitment to buy $40-50 bln of US agricultural goods over two years makes the handshake agreement less secure. At the same...
It is hard to believe that the Brexit referendum was way back in June 2016. After forty months and three Prime Ministers in the UK, there has been no resolution that fulfilled the wishes of the British people. Prime Minister Boris Johnson took office only weeks ago after Theresa May threw up...
Back in August, I made the argument that the EUR/USD currency has hit a “new normal”. By this, I meant that the currency had seen a sustained long-term depreciation against the greenback, and was therefore unlikely to breach the 1.25 level that had been seen before 2015. In t...