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2024-07-30 09:40:00 ET Summary The method we've used to track the probability of recession in the U.S. since the U.S. Treasury yield curve first inverted in October 2022 is about to do something it hasn't done before. It's going to record a "triple top". In the past week, the yiel...
2024-07-26 18:35:00 ET Summary Gross domestic product last quarter increased by 2.8%, a hair above average long-term growth. Soft landings are usually considered rare, but some economists see them more frequently. This GDP report will give the Federal Reserve impetus to cut in...
2024-07-26 12:30:00 ET Summary After a year of wondering, data indicates that we can expect to see the first Federal Reserve interest rate cut soon. Artificial intelligence demands a massive amount of power, providing a structural tailwind for energy infrastructure. Significan...
2024-07-26 11:42:00 ET Summary The recessionistas are now forced to look to the third quarter as the earliest start date for an economic downturn in the US. US economic activity rose 2.8% in Q2, well above the consensus forecast and CapitalSpectator.com’s final nowcast for ...
2024-07-24 10:46:00 ET Summary The 2024 deficit estimate has increased by $400 billion, a 27% rise from their estimate five months ago. For the next decade, the deficit is expected to be double that half-century average. The CBO forecasts no recession for the next decade, yet ...
2024-07-24 09:55:00 ET Summary Among the indicators that have failed to provide timely signals of an approaching recession: the yield curve, the Leading Economic Index, and temporary help employment, which Axios notes “was big tell” in the past but has stumbled recently....
2024-07-16 10:13:59 ET The Small-Cap Russell 2000 Index ( RTY ) has broken out above a two-and-a-half year trading range this week, as the index has popped 8.9% since last week's July 9 close.... Read the full article on Seeking Alpha For further details see: Rus...
2024-07-10 03:50:00 ET Summary In our opinion, it’s not the case that the US economy has avoided a recession, but rather that the current cycle has been elongated. We use the commodity/gold ratio (the Spot Commodity Index (GNX) divided by the US$ gold price) to define booms...
2024-07-09 11:00:00 ET Summary Recession risk has risen, but it’s still premature to confidently declare that a downturn has started. Conditions could deteriorate in the weeks ahead, but for the moment, slow/sluggish growth appears to be the odds-on favorite for the near-te...
2024-07-05 13:35:00 ET Summary The U-3 unemployment rate increased to 4.1 percent in June 2024. The Sahm Rule, developed by former Fed economist Claudia Sahm, is designed to identify the start of a recession using changes in the total unemployment rate. If the labor force grow...
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2024-06-29 10:02:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-08 19:56:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-09 08:06:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...