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2023-07-16 05:30:00 ET Summary Obviously, AI has supercharged the indexes, for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. Small businesses tend to feel the impact of monetary tightening with a lag compared to larger companies. The Fed, although they haven’t come out and said it, t...
2023-07-15 02:25:00 ET Summary For months, many leading indicators of economic activity have been signaling a future recession. The full effects of policy rate hikes are only now just starting to emerge, and should increasingly impact the real economy in coming quarters. While...
2023-07-15 00:36:23 ET Summary The article suggests that a recession is likely to start within the next year, based on economic theory and history. I discuss the Austrian Business Cycle Theory, which states that monetary expansion can lead to a misallocation of resources, causing ...
2023-07-12 21:12:00 ET Summary The yield curve spread that most accurately forecasts recessions is that between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Fed economists and policymakers are also predominantly Keynesian, so they believe in the Phillips Cur...
2023-07-11 10:20:00 ET Summary The Composite Recession Probability Index currently estimates that an NBER-defined downturn in progress is just 10%. The near-term future also looks relatively upbeat, based on a pair of proprietary indicators featured in The US Business Cycle Risk R...
2023-07-10 21:10:00 ET Summary At the beginning of this year, the consensus was that a recession was imminent (within 6 months) so stocks would perform poorly in the first half of the year; bonds were the better choice. The 10-year Treasury yield finally broke above the short-term...
2023-07-10 13:17:00 ET Summary It’s possible to enter a period where recession clearly becomes increasingly likely, even as it remains exceedingly difficult to predict the timing of a recession with any confidence. An extremely soft landing would allow inflation to fall whi...
2023-07-06 23:23:00 ET Summary The U-3 unemployment rate moved up to 3.7 percent, a historically low figure but a big jump from the prior month’s level (3.4 percent, a figure not bettered since 1953). Housing activity remained mixed over the past month, with the new side of...
2023-07-05 22:43:00 ET Summary The doubling in Canada’s population over a period of 56 years is pretty modest, amounting to about 1.25% per year, compounded. Canada is currently experiencing record high levels of employment and near record low levels of unemployment. Fo...
2023-07-04 01:50:00 ET Summary The yield curve, as measured by the 2-year note and 10-year note (Treasury yields) have gotten more inverted of late, registering at -106 basis points (bps) at last count. Even at that, many bond experts are saying that we are still in “lucky&...
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2024-06-29 10:02:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-08 19:56:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-09 08:06:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...