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2024-01-12 01:30:00 ET Summary While recession continues to be a base case of 55%, the odds of a soft landing are getting better. As you near a cycle peak, the economy transitions quickly from strong job formation to outright losses. The Fed has the latitude to cut rates and, ...
2024-01-08 14:15:00 ET Summary There has never been an incidence in history where US Conference Board LEI had a 6-month average growth rate sub -4.5%. The six-month smoothed LEI growth rate in November was -7.5% and has been negative for 20 consecutive months. When we combine ...
2023-12-28 11:30:00 ET Summary The 2024 slowdown will probably not be a recession, though that’s certainly a possibility. Yield curve inversion is one of the best leading indicators, measuring whether short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. Despite the general...
2023-12-20 12:38:38 ET More on ProShares Trust - ProShares UltraPro Russell2000 Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating on ProShares Trust - ProShares UltraPro Russell2000 Dividend scorecard for ProShares Trust - ProShares UltraPro Russell2000 For further details see: ...
2023-12-20 04:57:00 ET Summary Some FOMC members saw two cuts, some saw four – based on dot plots – so three, more or less, marks the middle. Emerging markets have lagged developed markets quite dramatically as the U.S. dollar has rallied, along with the Fed’s...
2023-12-20 03:08:00 ET Summary In recent years, investors prospered by selling stocks and going to cash in early 2019, avoiding the eventual market downturn and recession in 2020. Since November, the run-up in asset prices has been stunning. Such is particularly the case given the...
2023-12-15 10:40:00 ET Summary Unemployment fell to 3.6% in March 2022. Now it’s 3.7%. If it’s still relatively low in March 2025, and if inflation has fallen close to the Fed’s 2% target, then the US will have achieved its first ever soft landing. In the ...
2023-12-15 09:25:00 ET Summary Despite indicators suggesting recessionary risks, the financial markets surged roughly 20% to date. The result of the increase in wealth effect has been a sustained improvement in consumer confidence, which supports economic growth. Given the unc...
2023-12-12 11:56:00 ET Summary The probability the U.S. economy will experience an official period of recession sometime in the next twelve months continued to recede during the past six weeks, currently standing at 67%. The probability peaked at 80.8% on 25 July 2023, just before...
2023-12-06 22:50:00 ET Summary The US was supposed to be in recession by now, according to numerous forecasts from early in 2023. GDP surged in the third quarter, dealing a body blow to expectations that a downturn was imminent. The latest narrative making the rounds: the weak...
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2024-06-29 10:02:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-08 19:56:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-09 08:06:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...