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2024-06-11 08:10:00 ET Summary We've been tracking a recession forecast model developed for the Federal Reserve Board by Jonathan Wright in 2006, which utilizes the U.S. Treasury yield curve as an input, while also factoring in the level of the Federal Fund Rate. In following mont...
2024-06-11 07:30:00 ET Summary The US dollar is firm against all the G10 currencies, except for sterling. Most emerging market currencies are lower, including the Mexican peso, which has become unhinged amid heightened political uncertainty. European bonds, especially French b...
2024-06-10 10:00:00 ET Summary The employment report released last Friday offered contradictory views of the state of the economy. If we look at some of the other labor data available to us, like the JOLTS survey that was also released last week, a picture of a softening labor mar...
2024-06-10 07:25:00 ET Summary With mixed elements, the market took the US jobs data as relatively strong and took the dollar and US rates higher. The EU Parliament election has shaken up European politics, with the Belgium government collapsing and French President Macron calling...
2024-06-07 13:45:00 ET Summary The two primary drivers of the market these days are news related to inflation and developments in artificial intelligence. The hope for the Fed to cut rates these past several months has supported equity values and suppressed rates since November. ...
2024-06-07 09:15:00 ET Summary Some softer US data has managed to pull the dollar away from its highs of the year. Our baseline Fed scenario should see the dollar drift lower over coming quarters, although the US elections remain the wild card. The USD/JPY rally has stalled too. ...
2024-06-07 07:50:35 ET Summary The dollar is little changed against the major currencies ahead of the US jobs report. The odds of two Fed cuts this year are now near 90%, double a week ago. US index futures are little changed now and are up 2.0%-2.5% this week. Ove...
2024-06-06 07:35:00 ET Summary The dollar is mostly softer today, ahead of tomorrow's employment report. We suspect ECB officials will try to deliver a hawkish cut, by which we mean, framing the move to avoid the market driving down interest rates. The euro is in the upper end...
2024-06-06 04:20:00 ET Summary Does gold hedge inflation? Rolling 36-month regressions of gold on median inflation yield results like those for headline inflation - the relationship is unstable and variable. If underlying inflation captures economic forces of excess demand and...
2024-06-05 07:15:00 ET Summary The yen, which rallied, yesterday, has given back most of its gains and the wage data gave the market second thoughts about next week's BOJ meeting. The Mexican peso, which has been sold aggressively in the face of the strong election showing of the ...
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2024-04-15 09:26:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-05 11:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-02-13 11:26:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...