Week Ahead: Digesting Last Week's Evolving Developments

2026-06-21 04:00:00 ET

Last week was momentous. There was a fragile 60-day de-escalation during negotiations between Washington and Tehran. However, the allies of both (Hezbollah and Israel) continue to clash, stalling talks. Still, oil prices tumbled 7-9%. At the same time, a new era at the Federal Reserve has begun. The new chair eschews forward guidance, and this was reflected in the terse statement and the fact that he did not participate in updated individual projections. Ironically, this led to even more weight being placed on Summary of Economic Projections. Nine of the remaining 18 Fed officials anticipated at least one rate hike would be appropriate this year. This sparked a 13 bp jump in the two-year US Treasury yield, the largest rise since April 2025, and lifted the dollar broadly....

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