The Iran War And Oil Backwardation: Here's What Investors Need To Know

2026-03-09 09:45:51 ET

As the conflict with Iran enters its second week, rampant uncertainty and fear are evident among some investors. Oil prices have surged, causing investors to dump stocks generally, but in particular, airline and cruise line stocks for fear of even higher oil prices in the days ahead. It's easy to watch various media outlets and see politicians and pundits calling this a potentially endless war and throwing out sky-high oil price projections if some of the worst-case scenarios come true. While I do want to consider the potential risks of a worst-case scenario, I also want to focus on the most likely scenario and on buying into fear, since that often pays off in the long run. With this in mind, let's take a look at what the oil market is truly indicating and, based on that, identify potential buying opportunities for investors now:

Note: I’m mindful of the heavy human and political weight of current events, but for the purpose of this piece, I’m keeping the focus strictly on the market side of things. The goal here is to provide a clear-eyed look at the economic impacts, independent of the broader headlines. ...

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