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2023-04-07 09:34:00 ET Summary Over the 47-year period since 1975, value stocks with high ROE ratios outperformed the value universe of stocks for the one-year period after the curve first inverts by an average of 4.8%. When spreads are narrow and begin to widen, we are in the Bro...
2023-04-06 03:53:00 ET Summary For months, I have been pointing to clear signs that monetary policy has become tight enough to make a difference in people's behavior. A pronounced steepening of the yield curve is the market's way of telling the Fed that they are going to have to c...
2023-04-04 08:00:00 ET Summary A yield curve inversion is caused by a large decline in the monetary inflation rate. There is no sign of an upward reversal in the monetary inflation rate. As long as monetary conditions as indicated by the monetary inflation rate are still tight...
2023-04-02 04:50:00 ET Summary We’ve talked a lot over the years about the shape of the yield curve, how that is a market signal, how that is telling us something about the future, about potential asset market returns. What’s our thoughts? US debt is considered the r...
2023-04-01 05:31:00 ET Summary The Fed added a gargantuan sum to its balance sheet in March, netting an increase of $324B. As the Fed defines it, the balance sheet increase in March was not QE because it did not buy Treasuries. The inverted yield curve is the clearest sign a r...
2023-03-29 13:25:00 ET Summary The economy continued to grow in March, with inflation still unacceptably high, and the Federal Reserve tightening further. A solid job market is the most important factor for consumer spending. Despite this, February retail sales dipped by 0.4 perce...
2023-03-28 00:45:00 ET Summary Over the past year, the Federal Reserve and the various European central banks have raised rates more than at any time since 1981. Short-term interest rates rose above long-term rates, creating the steepest yield curve inversion in decades. As su...
2023-03-26 05:16:00 ET Summary The regulatory intervention of Silicon Valley Bank stopped corporate and financial sector issuance altogether for four working days. The most notable sign of market resilience was a highly successful USD1.8 billion 10 and 31-year sale by Republic of ...
2023-03-22 03:20:00 ET Summary An active Fed means that investors may finally get some yield out of front-end fixed income. Inverted curves also mean attractive income with limited duration risk, in our view. We think that elevated inflation will likely keep the Fed hiking rates. ...
2023-03-21 11:38:00 ET Summary Plunging Treasury yields are calming financial markets, but they also indicate that the Fed doesn’t need to raise rates higher to match market rates. The banking contagion risk has spread to Europe, where all eyes are now on Credit Suisse afte...
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2024-07-25 07:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-24 19:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-05 01:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...