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2023-06-22 03:11:00 ET Summary The new Powell arithmetic: The Fed and the rates market believe that policy is restrictive. But uncertainty remains as the Fed signaled additional hikes and bond markets have priced in a higher probability of additional “insurance” hikes be...
2023-06-19 03:57:00 ET Summary 10yr Treasury rates are rising and lessening yield curve inversion. Inflation thinking is turning away from “transitory” to “longer-lasting”. The lack of response with gold, oil and commodities at the moment has confused i...
2023-06-15 00:31:00 ET Summary As the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates, farmers are penciling in another variable to their operating costs. Higher rates and lower crop prices are defining the ag economy ahead of the highly anticipated June 30 acreage report. As produc...
2023-06-14 22:47:00 ET Summary Interest rates are relatively high from an historical perspective, but there are as yet few - if any - signs that monetary policy is too tight or that it is threatening the health of the economy. Without shelter costs artificially inflating the CPI, ...
2023-06-14 12:15:00 ET Summary A hawkish hold need not be market-moving for dollar rates, and a lot of financial tightening is still in the pipeline. What’s more important is the tone and language used by Chair Powell, where a hawkish tilt should prevent yields from seeing ...
2023-06-12 22:12:00 ET Summary The US Treasury yield curve is at its most inverted since the 1980s. An inverted yield curve has been in place for five of the past six recessions. Fixed income has historically shown positive returns during recessionary periods. By M...
2023-06-09 15:10:00 ET Summary The Federal Reserve is expected to leave policy rates unchanged on 14 June, despite recent market pricing shifts. Conflicting data and mixed messages in recent data releases suggest it may be prudent for the Fed to pause and evaluate. If rates ar...
2023-06-05 09:20:00 ET Summary The stock market surged last Friday after the employment report showed a gain of over 300k jobs while the year-over-year change in average hourly earnings fell to 4.3%. The rally in REITs and small-cap value may be more important because sentiment is...
2023-06-03 02:19:00 ET Summary The Fed saw a reduction in its balance sheet of $177M. The majority of this was actually in Treasuries with less than 1-year maturity, totaling $102B. MBS fell short of the $35B reduction target yet again, seeing only $17.6B roll off the balance shee...
2023-06-02 00:30:00 ET Summary The Treasury yield curve is expected to return to a positive slope, with short-maturity yields below longer maturity yields. Despite strong nonfarm payroll reports, weaker numbers could emerge in the next few months due to a weakening manufacturing s...
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2024-07-25 07:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-24 19:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-05 01:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...