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2024-02-07 03:18:00 ET Summary The recent congressional continuing resolutions have slightly dampened the extremes, but most of the extraordinary spread is still in the marketplace. In my opinion, the benefit of higher interest rates flows to the buyer of a tax-free municipal bond...
2024-02-06 07:05:00 ET Summary The US economy is ok - credit spreads are still quite low, liquidity is still abundant, the dollar is still strong, inflation is still declining, and there are only a few indicators that suggest caution. Owning short-term risk-free assets today has b...
2024-01-30 11:35:00 ET Summary The US 10-2-year Treasury yield spread has moved from a deep inversion at 108 bps last July to -14 bps as of January 25, 2024. Re-steepening of the yield curve has historically coincided with rising unemployment claims. For stocks, corporate debt...
2024-01-25 02:30:00 ET Summary While treasury rates, across maturities, jumped dramatically in 2022, their behavior diverged in 2023. The yield curve has been inverted for all of 2023, in all of its variations. If inflation continues its downward path, it is likely that we wil...
2024-01-22 15:40:00 ET Summary The General Business Conditions index fell to -43.7, a depth only exceeded by the -78.2 reading in April of 2020 with the economy shut down for COVID. New orders (-49.4 vs -11.3) and shipments (-31.3 vs -6.4) also posted sharp declines and unfilled o...
2024-01-20 01:10:00 ET Summary So close, and then so far. That was the story of the Treasury yield curve last October, when the 10-year yield briefly touched a decades-long high of five percent. As has become the norm, the bond market took whatever the Fed said and doubled down. ...
2024-01-19 08:45:00 ET Summary The US 10-year Treasury yield has been below the 3-month yield since November 2022. This rare yield inversion has preceded each recession since 1982, with no false signals. In past cycles, the US Fed stopped hiking when the yield curve inverted, ...
2024-01-15 21:13:00 ET Summary The highest-rated core government bonds are called “risk free” not because their prices don’t go up and down, sometimes wildly, and not because they are insensitive to shifting economic forces. The overwhelming probability is tha...
2024-01-12 07:02:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2023-12-28 20:15:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
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2024-05-05 01:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-16 09:10:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-01-12 07:02:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...