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One of the most remarkable features of our current economy is that interest rates are flat or negative in real terms, and many people are advocating they need to, or should, go lower. This is not completely unprecedented. Real rates were negative after the second World War and again in the 197...
The BCI at 257.1is up from last week's downward revised 256.6, and remains below the previous high of this business cycle indicated by the BCIp of 91.9. However, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 10.2 is below last week’s downward revised 10.4. Both BCIp and BCIg are not si...
By Blu Putnam At a Glance Core inflation in the United States has been stuck in a narrow range for 25 years. With changing demographics and more price transparency, the Federal Reserve has less impact on the inflation rate than in past eras. Inflation is subdued, and there is not...
Originally published on August 30, 2019 By Scott Bauer At a Glance China-U.S. Trade War, Hong Kong unrest and Fed policy have been tailwinds for the yellow metal. 10-year yields below 1.5 percent and the dollar decline versus the yen are also bullish signs for gold. Why does ...
Editor's note: Originally published at tsi-blog.com on September 10, 2019. [This blog post is an excerpt from a commentary published at TSI on 1st September 2019.] It’s well known that the US$ gold price often trends in the opposite direction to the US real interest rate. This...
Germany has recently joined Switzerland in the dubious All Negative Club. The interest rate on every government bond, from short to 30 years, is now negative. Many would say "congratulations," in the belief that this proves their credit risk is... well... umm... negative(?) And anyway, it will...
The Federal Reserve has ended its efforts to “normalize” its balance sheet. That is, the Fed has now moved on to the next stage of its operations. It has stopped reducing the size of its securities portfolio and now is focusing almost entirely on what it should do with interest...
It's that D-word again. Deflation is knocking at the door of the global economy. But who is going to answer, and who is really at the door? (and so what??) In the following charts and paragraphs I will provide my take on the key drivers, the response, the ripple effects, and a base case scen...
By Olumide Owolabi, Portfolio Manager, Global Fixed Income Team The Fed seems more likely to focus on a range of policy tools. Neuberger Berman's Global Fixed Income team recently conducted a roundtable discussion focused on the unprecedented dynamics of negative interest rates. We exa...
By Colin Lloyd Following on from my previous article, " The Pension Fund Apocalypse ," these are just a few of last month's stories. Danske Bank ([[DNSKF]]) of Denmark introduces the first negative 10-year fixed-rate mortgage. The German Finance Ministry voices disappointment at the ...
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2024-07-25 07:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-24 19:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-05 01:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...