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Ahead of Thursday’s September report on US consumer inflation, the Treasury market’s implied inflation forecast via 5-year maturities quietly ticked down to 1.24% in Wednesday’s trading (based on daily data via Treasury.gov). The crowd’s estimate of future pricing p...
By Gerhardt (Gary) P. Herbert, CFA Last week, I explained how Federal Reserve (Fed) balance sheet expansion could send 10-year Treasury yields toward zero over the next few years. While that notion may seem far-fetched to some, my point was to highlight why quantitative easing isn't a pana...
By Al Brooks, MD The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond futures has an inside bar so far in October on the monthly chart (see below). September's low was above the August low and its high was below the August high. September is therefore also an inside month. Consecutive inside bars (an "ii" pat...
RECESSION ANGST VS. RECESSION REALITIES Global growth have been at the center of investor worries, but in some geographies, this is currently more a function of anticipation than hard data. Looking into the fourth quarter of 2019, we would break the world into two groups. Europe and some m...
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari wants to see more data before making up his mind on whether the Fed should cut continue cutting. More news on: iShares Core U.S. Treasury Bond ETF, Invesco Exchange-Traded Fund Trust II - Invesco 1-30 Laddered Treasury ETF, Barclays Inverse US Treasu...
The New York Fed will continue to conduct overnight and term repurchase agreements until at least Nov. 12, 2019 to ensure sufficient liquidity for short-term lending among banks. More news on: iShares Core U.S. Treasury Bond ETF, Invesco Exchange-Traded Fund Trust II - Invesco 1-30 Ladde...
Repogeddon Breitbart and ZeroHedge have been shouting that the financial markets are in chaos, disaster looms, over the spike in repo rates. This isn't actually a serious problem whatever is being said. Sure, there's a reasonable argument that we'd prefer not to have repo rates of 10% ...
What keeps New York Fed President John Williams up at night? Short-term interest rates and "the uncharted waters of trade and geopolitical uncertainties," answers Williams at an economic conference in San Diego. More news on: iShares Core U.S. Treasury Bond ETF, Invesco Exchange-Traded Fun...
This is the fourth in a series of posts regarding the Fed's balance sheet and quantitative easing. Unlike the first three, I'm not going to do the graphs of the composition of the Fed's balance sheet that I did before, because I'm not sure it's relevant to the present argument. I want to quo...
With China closed for its National Day Golden Week holiday, the stage was set for Japan to steal the market spotlight. If only briefly. The Bank of Japan announced last night that it had had enough of the JGB curve. The 2s10s very nearly inverted last month , and BoJ officials released prelim...
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2024-07-25 07:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-24 19:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-05 01:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...