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By Kevin Flanagan, Head of Fixed Income Strategy Given the current state of the U.S. economy and the prior dislocations in the money and bond markets, there has been an increasing amount of chatter regarding whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) would actually consider pushing the Fed Funds ra...
Editor's note: Originally published at tsi-blog.com on May 18, 2020. [This blog post is a modified excerpt from a recent TSI commentary.] At around this time last month, we noted that the Fed had pushed the year-over-year rate of growth in US True Money Supply ((TMS))*, also known as...
Most investors are convinced that all recessions are deflationary. If the economy slows, demand declines, prices fall, and bond yields collapse. This often causes a spike in long-term Treasuries ( TLT ) and a decline in commodities. Indeed, we have seen this occur since the March COVID-19 cras...
In a stunning reflection of the current U.S. economy, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today that U.S. inflation fell 0.8% in April, the largest drop since December 2008, at the opening of the Great Recession. Year-over-year U.S. inflation has now plummeted to just 0.3%, down from 2...
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to quash the prospect of negative interest rates when he speaks tomorrow even as President Trump continues to tout them as a cheap way to borrow. More news on: iShares Core U.S. Treasury Bond ETF, Invesco Exchange-Traded Fund Trust II - Invesco 1-30 ...
We are living in an era which bombards us with statistics every day. There are of course the statistics on the state, national, and global increases (or decreases) in new cases of the coronavirus. There are the similar reports of mortality at all levels. There are also reports of unemployment ...
Inflation-adjusted interest rates in the US have been negative before, but the dip below zero this time is different vs. recent decades: the slide is accompanied by a global economic collapse that may or may not be temporary. It's unclear if the latest return of negative real yields will des...
There has been a growing debate regarding whether COVID-19 (and its lasting economic consequences) will promote inflation or deflation. Traditionally, recessions are deflationary, as they cause demand to decline while supply is unchanged. However, this recession is far from traditional in that...
Should we worry about government debt? That was the question recently posed by Ben Carlson, who laid out several arguments as to why spiraling government debt may not matter. To wit : "Is this debt so unsustainable it's going to wreck future generations and leave them holding the bag? Ar...
Anthony Okolie recaps the biggest news of the day, including the latest COVID-19 developments, followed by a conversation with Scott Colbourne, Managing Director, Global Active Fixed Income, TD Asset Management, about the Fed's pledge to keep rates near zero to support the economy through...
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2024-07-25 07:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-24 19:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-05 01:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...