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U.S. and global equities markets are historic speculative bubbles, fueled by runaway monetary inflation and acute monetary disorder. It's my opinion that markets in U.S. stocks, cryptocurrencies, corporate credit and derivatives have evolved into full-fledged manias. The Fed's Z.1 "fl...
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released Wednesday puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 1.68%. It is below the 3.76% average since the end of the Second World War and below its 10-year moving average, now at 1.73%. Our long-term inflation charts reach bac...
One of the interesting things during the period when Treasury yields were rising was that all of the risk assets were compressing against Treasuries. There is virtually no spread in any of the credit indexes that pays the buyer for the credit risk. The spreads are just off historic lo...
10-year U.S. Treasury yield. Where is it headed? Will high-flying tech and momentum stocks fly high again? Is this a short-lived sector rotation from tech into value? For further details see: The Great Tech Rotation. Will High-Flying Tech Fly High Again?
Today the Fed released its estimates of household net worth as of the end of December 2020. Net worth has reached a new record high in nominal, real, and per capita terms. The private sector of the US economy currently has a net worth (total assets minus liabilities) of more than $130...
The stakes are high as we head to 31st March. By then, the positive leeway the Fed gave to US banks on how to treat Treasuries and reserves comes to an end, unless the Fed decides to extend it. We think they will, but not with conviction. If they don't, there are $600 billion of T...
Without a doubt, the biggest story in bond-land, if not the financial markets in general, thus far in 2021 has been the spike in the U.S. Treasury 10-year yield. At this point, the federal government's financing needs reflect the baseline trillion-dollar deficit coming into this fisca...
Inflation has been gradually rising since 2Q20, but there will be a step change in March and April with the economy in a very different position to what it was 12 months before. Headline US inflation has risen from 0.2% year-on-year last May to 1.7% today, but it is barely halfway to ...
It should be no surprise that profit-maximizing speculators will seek the best risk-adjusted returns wherever and whenever they might perceive them. While the securities lending side of the financial world can be and most often is pliable, fungible, and, at times, horrifically forgivi...
As well as low correlation with G7 yields in recent years, the Chinese 10s/2s yield curve has been more stable than most G7 yield curves in recent years, despite the PBOC not pursuing QE or formal yield curve control (unlike the BoJ). Unlike the US, there are few signs of inflation ri...
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2024-07-25 07:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-24 19:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-05 01:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...