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All of the recent positive economic news caused the IMF to raise its 2021 U.S. GDP forecast by a giant step to 6.4% (from 5.1% previously estimated). That would represent the strongest annual economic growth rate since 1984. The one warning flag is inflation. Producer Price Index rose...
A jump in US CPI today is well-flagged, but it should be a wake-up call to what we think will be stickier inflation in the coming months, if not years. This would render the Fed's position increasingly stretched and the policy-sensitive 5Y sector has more room to cheapen. EUR rate...
We know that rising bond yields can be painful in the short term as prices fall. But in the long run, rising rates are good for bond investors. To see what the actual impact of rising rates might be on a bond portfolio, we modeled a simple portfolio of Treasury bonds and "shocked" it ...
March was a mixed month for global government bond yields, with those for the U.S. 10-year Treasury note rising by 29 basis points to 1.75%. In Canada, the 10-year mid-yield climbed nearly 21 basis points to end the month at 1.56%, its sixth consecutive increase. Also increasing f...
We are recovering from a sharp if brief recession, and with the dual fire hoses of fiscal and monetary stimulus, entering a boom such as we have probably not seen in over 50 years. Unsurprisingly, supplies of commodities and goods that had been cut back during the recession are going ...
The PPI report last week didn't make a ripple in the markets, but the commentariat was all aTwitter about inflation and economic overheating and whether Powell might raise in rates in 2 years or 3. The market was not impressed. The 10-year Treasury yield moved all of about 1 basis poi...
The spectacular collapse of Archegos marks a significant inflection point, ushering in a tightening of lending conditions at the "margin" for increasingly vulnerable bubbles. In contrast to the previous bubble period, government "money" has been a principal bubble fuel. Policymakers h...
For decades, we have relied upon bonds as a steady source of income, cash flows, and capital preservation. This is no longer true and has not been true for some time now. In my estimation, there is just no worth in the bond markets any longer, whether you consider “Absolute Val...
We look through potential reasons for the April bounce in fixed income. A stubborn Fed and gloomy eurozone outlook provide the best, if unsatisfactory, explanations. Upcoming US inflation data and supply offer the most likely drivers for a return to the higher rates trend. F...
Adam D. Koós, CFP, CMT discusses the stock market, bond market, gold, gold mining stocks, to bitcoin, seasonality, and expectations regarding the next month and beyond. Markets may be a little overbought in the near term, but there’s no reason to be worried or to figure ou...
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2024-07-25 07:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-24 19:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-05 01:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...