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We expect the European Central Bank to maintain its current pace of asset purchases even though the economic restart is gaining momentum. U.S. nonfarm payrolls growth picked up in May. We caution against extrapolating too much from erratic near-term data amid a powerful restart. U...
The latest leading economic data indicate that the recovery is intact and that the strong GDP growth reported for the first quarter of this year will continue. We were looking for the US economy to recover rapidly during the second half of 2020, level off during the first half of 2021...
The VIX has hurtled lower, to just over 15, and at this rate, it will soon be in the low teens. The same is the case for the MOVE index for fixed-income volatility, which is also now clearly driving lower, hitting a 13-month low of 53.4 in May. I suspect vol selling will remain lu...
This has been a run in stocks from the March lows, all while without even really experiencing the usually recession beforehand. That run has been coupled with record revisions of earning forecasts, setting us up for what would seem to be an inevitable fall. However, markets can trend ...
Even as 26.6 million more potential workers arrived, given last year’s deep recession there were in May 2021 only 6.5 million more payrolls than there had been in October 2008. The recovery was said to have been on a winning streak (vaccines, gov’t payments, etc.), so it...
Taper talk is back, and with it the risk of higher USD rates volatility. Big liquidity going back to the Fed has eased, but is still very large. NGeu will make an earlier-than-expected start in the Euro bond market and is set to become a key contributor to the growth of sovereign ...
The major asset classes delivered across-the-board gains for a second month in a row in May. Everything apart from cash was up last month, led by a sizzling rally in foreign inflation-linked government bonds. The FTSE Russell World Inflation Index ex-US surged 4.0% last month, the...
On one hand, prices that are falling too quickly have the potential to hurt purchasing power by raising the real value and servicing cost of liabilities. On the other, prices that are rising too quickly can hurt purchasing power by reducing the real value of income. Growing demand or ...
When I stand back and consider what the Fed is actually doing, it leads me to the observation that they are actually monetizing America’s debt. In fact, in my view, they have been doing so ever since the financial crisis of 2008/2009. The Fed can, and does, buy maturities all a...
The Fed has not changed its messaging since the pandemic hit. But the GDP is at 10%, and inflation's latest data annualized is also at 10%. Uh, you think it's time for a change? The repo market may force the Fed's hand. The Fed has lost control with the huge demand to borrow from ...
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2024-07-25 07:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-24 19:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-05 01:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...