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I think the idea of a “surprise” inter-meeting rate hike is silly in the context of modern Federal Reserve operating procedures. Unless inflation cools a lot, the base case has to be that we are looking at 25 basis points per meeting (plus the wild card of a starting 50)...
The price of government bonds, particularly those with shorter maturities have declined considerably over the past seven months. Growth rates and future earnings are inextricably connected. Value companies often command much lower price to earnings ratios. For further detail...
The stimulus payments led to a short-term boost in PCE, corresponding with increased economic growth. However, stimulus-fueled activity has a dark side. Economic stagnation arrives as expected as the sugar rush of liquidity continues to fade from the system. When it comes to the s...
So far, the Dow is off 5.6% from the highs (transports are -12.0%), the S&P 500 is -7.8%. Ex-energy and financials, the S&P 500 is near -10%. The Nasdaq is -14%, and the economically sensitive Russell 2000 is -16.9%–the same level it was at the start of 2021. At the...
The recent run higher in the Sharpe ratio for the Global Market Index finally reversed in October. Risk-adjusted performance has slipped, but GMI's rebound in October lifted it to a new record high. GMI is useful as a baseline to begin research on asset allocation and portfolio de...
US real estate investment trusts (REITs) and stocks posted the strongest returns for the major asset classes in October - by wide margins. US REITs surged 7.7% last month, reversing September’s sharp decline. The recovery puts American property shares in the lead for 2021 with ...
A decent US jobs figure will allow the Fed to announce the taper next month. Inflation will keep the pressure on the Fed, arguing for further steepening of the curve into next week's bond supply. The ECB has yet to figure out how to react to higher inflation, but also avoid the ne...
It's hard to see the economy stumbling when liquidity is super-abundant and borrowing costs are incredibly low. Even if the Fed finishes its tapering and starts raising its target funds rate well before anyone currently expects them to, they will still have to counteract the super-abu...
Risk-adjusted performance continued to rise in September for the Global Market Index (GMI), an unmanaged, market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes (except cash). GMI’s 0.97 Sharpe ratio is close to the highest levels reached in recent history. ...
Inflation concerns are a problem for fixed income markets. But it is a return to positive economic surprises that will prove the most potent driver of higher rates in the coming weeks. As the ECB diverts the focus away from the amount of its purchases, we think sovereign spreads s...
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2024-07-25 07:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-24 19:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-05 01:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...