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The Fed funds rate has been increased 25bp, with Federal Reserve officials forecasting six additional hikes this year and the rate peaking at 2.8% next year. Geopolitical tensions create uncertainty, but the Fed feels the need to step on the accelerator. It increases the likelihoo...
The Fed is set to kick off its tightening cycle today. Whether this translates into durably higher long-end interest rates depends on the market’s economic optimism. The energy crisis means there is less of it. After an overshoot, rates should settle near current levels. ...
In 2022, as oil prices have mercifully plunged and fears of Russian spillover maybe temporarily abate, rate hikes have retaken center stage. Long-term Treasury yields jumped on Monday, as they have over the past two weeks or so, with the entire back end of the yield curve being adjust...
Putin’s gamble, and the West’s response, has brought into view one of the few existential tail risks that isn’t a Black Swan: the risk of an escalation into war between Russia and NATO, and the exchange of nuclear weaponry. We also know that the war between Ukrain...
I don't pretend to know how the Russia/Ukraine war will play out, but I can shed some light on how it has impacted the U.S. and Eurozone economies. Limiting Russia's ability to use the SWIFT payment system is a big factor reducing liquidity overseas. Whenever the market gets very ...
The Fed is confronted with the highest inflation setting in 40 years. Yield curve is rarely this flat heading into a prolonged rate hike cycle. With the yield curve being as narrow as it is currently, the question revolves around how fast it could actually become inverted. F...
At the moment, some variables are beginning to align that might be a sign of a recession on the horizon. Up until the Russian invasion into Ukraine, the market was nearly unanimous in thinking the Federal Reserve would increase the Fed Funds Rate by at least .25%, if not .50%. The...
In 2022, we have extreme uncertainty around the fundamental economic environment, the policy response, inflation and the response of policymakers. Although we are cautiously optimistic on the inflationary trajectory, when you look at the relatively low rate environment still, you ...
Inflation is money, therefore a true central bank should be able to judge whether or not there is too much. If there is, inflation’s going to be coming unless some intervention in the real money system. Instead, policymakers attempt to reverse-engineer their way into the inflat...
The equities rebound towards the end of January, from the initial swoon, was reversed last week, and at this point, a new low is all but certain. There are a number of things troubling equities. Geopolitics are a fickle catalyst for anything, but it has certainly added to the misery i...
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2024-07-25 07:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-24 19:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-05 01:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...