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Anchored by the deflationary experiences of the last decade, the Fed waited until headline CPI inflation had hit 7.9% before it finally started tightening monetary policy. This delayed response has permitted inflation expectations to rise and wage growth pressures to increase. Monetar...
The tone has become markedly risk-off, bonds rallying as risk assets sell off. The US curve starts signalling a looming cycle change as recession fears take over. As the first ECB hikes draw closer, the central bank deploys its first line of defence for bond spreads, but it remain...
Federal Reserve wants to hit the brakes, a 180-degree reversal from the recent two-year effort to turbo-stimulate the U.S. economy. USD's strength since early last year has defied a widening trade deficit, historic negative real interest rates, and growing anxiety that weaponizing the...
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index's preliminary estimate for June plunged to a record low. The good news from all this bad news is that “contrarian theory” says that when sentiment reaches such historic lows, the only way it can go is up. T...
After months of fretting about soaring inflation, markets are now fully in recession-fear mode. Yield curves are flattening, credit spreads are widening, and equities are slumping - traditional recession alerts. Meanwhile, captains of industry and finance are warning of impending ...
The Fed has today followed up with the first 75bp increase since 1994 as it tries to dampen inflation pressures with greater vigour. The Fed’s new forecasts sees them signal that the pace of policy tightening will remain intense over the next few months. This more aggressive st...
According to the NBS last week, the Chinese CPI dropped 0.2% month-over-month. Compared to May 2021, the index has increased just 2.1%, the same year-over-year rate as April. Unlike what it looks from the perspective of US or European CPIs, there’s no mistaking the downturn acr...
The recent performance of the UST 10-Year yield has underscored the uncertainty that has apparently gripped the bond market. With the Fed’s aggressive use of quantitative easing (QE), one needs to take a deeper look at yield curves before drawing the same conclusions from the h...
Supply chain disruptions that were the root cause of inflation in 2021 are slowly being resolved in spots. Should reshoring and the localization of supply chains follow, the cost could result in higher prices for the long term. As rate hiking cycles unfold, they are often met with...
The beginning of so-called quantitative tightening commences on Wednesday as the Fed lets bonds mature off its $9T balance sheet without replacement. It's a big step for a central bank that conducted unprecedented bond purchases from March 2020 to March 2022, which were intended to blunt the ...
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2024-07-25 07:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-24 19:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-05 01:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...