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2024-02-20 10:48:00 ET Summary Every state’s economy is, in some degree, unique, although the gravitational pull of the national economy casts a long shadow. The most reliable methodology for estimating recession risk in real-time is building an ensemble model that combines...
2024-02-19 10:35:23 ET Summary The inverted yield curve, historically a reliable indicator of recession, has not yet led to an economic contraction. Economist Campbell Harvey, who developed the yield-curve indicator, acknowledged its potential inaccuracy due to inflation-adjusted ...
2024-02-17 23:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-02-11 06:59:00 ET Summary The Fed had an FOMC meeting earlier this week, and a lot of people were saying the Fed was hawkish. I would say that the Fed was being more conservative, more cautious. It’s been a mixed bag with big tech, but nonetheless they are hitting thei...
2024-02-08 09:48:00 ET Summary The ISM manufacturing survey has been below 50 for 15 months in a row and sits today at 49.1. This survey, along with a lot of other manufacturing data and anecdotes, has been cited repeatedly by the economic bears as evidence we are heading for rece...
2024-02-06 10:51:00 ET Summary The total return of the S&P 500 remains behind Treasury bills since its January 2022 peak more than two years ago. Amid the enthusiasm and now nearly unanimous consensus that recession risk is behind us, I’ll reiterate our own view: the da...
2024-01-31 02:00:00 ET Summary If the Fed does happen to break something and the economy grinds to a halt, it can respond very quickly. We believe growth of 2.5% is very doable in the 2020s. Healthcare companies are fast becoming data companies. In their first walk o...
2024-01-30 11:20:00 ET Summary With all the talk of soft landing for the US economy in the media in recent weeks, we half expected to find the odds of a recession for the US economy had continued to recede over the past six weeks. After bottoming at 67% in the period from mid-Nove...
2024-01-30 03:20:00 ET Summary In my opinion, the border and the US labor force are paramount political issues in 2024. The current longevity and depth of the yield curve inversion is not atypical of the inversions that have preceded all recessions in the post-war period. The ...
2024-01-26 21:06:00 ET Summary For the perennial recession forecasters, the 3.3% rise in output in Q4 was the latest blow to ongoing warnings that trouble is just around the corner. Last year was yet another master class of showing the power of ensemble models that carefully draw ...
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2024-03-10 05:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-02-17 23:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-01-16 10:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...