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The traditional business cycle playbook does not apply to the pandemic. Central banks have signaled they will be more willing to let economies run hot with above-target inflation by changing their policy frameworks to make up for prior inflation undershoots. The powerful stimulus ...
The last ice age lasted a very long time and caused a significant regression in the biological advance of life on earth. I think we are on the verge of entering into a new kind of ice age — an economic one — around the world today. Massive debt loads weigh down the e...
Despite QE frequently being described as "money printing," including by me, it is effectively an asset swap that lowers the average duration and interest rate on the government's debt. QE does not generate increased bank lending or economic growth, and in fact it has a number of econo...
China's November economic data matched expectations. Industrial output accelerated to 7.0% year over year form 6.5%. The UK reported that job cuts hit a record in the three months through October, rising by 217k. The US reports the December Empire Manufacturing Survey today (the B...
We favor inflation-linked bonds and see equities supported in strategic portfolios, expecting firmer inflation and falling real rates in coming years. Global stocks hit record highs amid positive vaccine news even as near-term challenges weighed. U.S. fiscal package talks continued. ...
UK and EU negotiators are still talking which has spurred a sharp bounce in sterling. Most emerging market currencies are higher, with the Turkish lira and a few East Asian currencies notable exceptions. The greenback is also consolidating against the Mexican peso. For furth...
I've written on multiple occasions about how deficit spending ultimately hampers GDP growth by crowding out private investment. It can also weigh on GDP growth when inflows of foreign dollars go toward funding the fiscal deficit instead of buying US goods or being invested in US asset...
The Johnson-von der Leyen dinner is seen as evidence that both sides see one more opportunity, and the sterling is among the strongest currencies today. Hopes of a $900 bln+ fiscal stimulus package in the US helped stir animal spirits and lift US stocks to record highs yesterday. ...
In the near term, we continue to expect a seasonal upsurge in COVID-19 cases to impact consumer behavior. Where hospitals are nearing capacity, an unwelcome return to local and regional lockdowns may still be necessary. Increased lockdowns will likely perpetuate the goods versus servi...
Government bond yields began to rise in November across most major sovereign markets. A notable exception was Greece's 10-year bond mid-yield, which dropped nearly 30 basis points to close the month at a record low of 0.63%. Yields on Italian and Portuguese 10-year government debt...
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2024-06-03 22:58:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-25 00:58:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-06 01:58:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...