Quarterly Outlook: Downside Risks To Growth

2025-09-30 23:50:00 ET

Global Macro Outlook: Downside Risks to Growth

By Paul Mielczarski

In the soft-versus-hard landing debate, the soft-landing camp has so far been the clear winner. The global economy has been much more resilient to global trade policy shocks than many had predicted. Several factors may have contributed to this resilience: (1) the gradual increase in effective tariff rates; (2) the slow pass-through of tariffs to consumer prices; (3) relatively healthy private sector balance sheets; and (4) the ongoing artificial intelligence ((AI)) capital expenditures (capex) boom....

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