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Summary Knowing when the U.S. economy is heading for recession is paramount to successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index would have provided early reliable warnings for the past seven recessions and signaled the Covid 2020 recession one week late. The BCI is a...
Summary As a top holding in the world's most followed stock benchmarks, Apple's long-term returns are material to even passive long-term investors. This article aims to explain a fresh and simple estimate of an expected total rate of return for Apple stock over the next 7 years, to the ...
Summary I have been writing about the Fed hurting the stock market since November 2021 - stock indexes are 20-40% off their highs. The popular narrative now is centered around Fed interest rate increases, pauses and cuts later - it's wrong. The narrative in several months will final...
Summary For the twelfth straight month, mutual fund investors were net redeemers of fund assets, withdrawing $94.1 billion from conventional funds for December. Fixed-income funds (-$53.0 billion) witnessed net outflows for the fourth consecutive month, while money market funds (+$86.9 ...
Summary Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 6.9 percentage points to 31.0%. Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, is unchanged at 36.0%. Bearish sentiment, ex...
Summary The SPY started well in 2023 before meeting resistance, as it was already due for a pullback. With macroeconomic headwinds less somber than in October, could the SPY sustain its recovery? China's recovery prospects could mitigate the headwinds in the US and Europe. But, ...
Summary Industrial production has been down for three months and capacity utilization has been down for eight months, signs that a recession is either here or very near. Although primarily associated with the manufacturing side of the U.S. economy, these two variables have been very con...
Summary The CBOE equity “puts to calls” ratio went to the highest level in the last 20 years, even above the levels reached during the 2007-2008 financial crisis. Confirming this, five times more money is currently going into QQQ puts than QQQ calls. Similarly, over tw...
Summary Checking out the bond markets, we see that investors seem to have built expectations of a future recession and much lower inflationary expectations into prices. The expectations built into the bond markets seem to be very similar to the economic forecasts of the Federal Reserve:...
Summary Each year, several thousand business leaders, politicians, and journalists convene in the ritzy mountain town of Davos, Switzerland for the World Economic Forum. Part media spectacle and part secret bacchanalia, Davos features wild predictions about the future, crazy afterpartie...
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2024-07-18 07:15:00 ET Investing in stocks can be challenging, especially when it comes to selecting individual companies. The process requires extensive research, constant monitoring, and carries substantial risk. For those seeking a simpler approach, Vanguard offers a compelling solut...
2024-06-16 13:30:00 ET Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) blasted to all-time highs on Wednesday. Apple is up over 14% in the last month -- the recent rally primarily fueled by a positive response to its annual Worldwide Developers Conference. Apple is inte...
2024-06-03 23:06:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...