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The disruption this week is connected with the US-China trade talks that is scaring financial markets throughout the world. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note dropped to 2.45 percent as money poured into the bond market, down from the 2.50 percent close yesterday. This rush to ris...
A few months ago, I wrote part III to this series outlining why interest rates would continue to remain low and most likely continue to fall on the long-end of the curve, confounding consensus opinion as to why interest rates should rise. The consensus opinion on long-term interest rates, ...
Three pieces of recent good news for Federal Reserve officials. First, the rate of growth of the US economy rose or remained constant for the twelfth consecutive month , coming in for the first quarter of 2019 at 3.2 percent. Second, the growth rate of labor force productivity came in at...
The BCI at 258.6 is above last week's 257.9, and formed a new high for this business cycle indicated by the BCIp of 100. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 13.7 is above last week’s 12.9. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession. (BCIp needs to drop below 25, o...
Why Did Rates Fall On The "Strong" GDP Print? On Friday, the BEA released the Q1 GDP figures which widely beat consensus expectations, rising 3.2% quarter over quarter (QoQ). Under the headline number revealed much weaker results than the top-line "beat" suggested which is why nominal int...
At the end of the second quarter of 2019, the US economy will have completed ten years of growth, the longest period of economic expansion since the end of the Second World War. It appears as if the annual compound rate of growth will come out around 2.3 percent. As post-World War II busines...
The table below shows the performance of bond categories during each -10% S&P 500 ( SPY ) drawdown since 1987. The charts below show the average performance figures. Since 1987, long-term U.S. government bonds ( TLT ) have been the best-performing category. But as the original table show...
In this commentary, Brian Meaney, Vice President, Taxable Fixed Income Strategist, reviews the first quarter of 2019 and examines our outlook and positioning for the months ahead. Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Read more ...
While the housing market has historically been the catalyst for many U.S. recessions, Hedgeye Housing analyst Josh Steiner explains in the video below why it’s unlikely to be the cause of the next economic downturn. “Housing is normally the cause of recessions – with...
HBO's epic fantasy TV series hit off its final season this past week, reminding viewers that through seven seasons of proclaiming that "Winter is Coming" despite no discernible signs of such change, winter has finally come. And with winter, which in the world of the story is a protracted sea...
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2024-07-15 10:22:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-03 23:08:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-25 01:08:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...