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Summary The inversion of 80% of the 10 economically important yield curves suggests a recession is likely. While many hope the Federal Reserve will “pivot,” such may not be as immediately “bullish” as many expect. As yields plummet, bond prices rise as in...
Summary Assuming the Fed follows through on hiking the Federal Funds Rate by another 0.5% tomorrow, the probability will resume rising rapidly. There are clearly building levels of distress in several sectors of the U.S. economy. 98% of CEOs surveyed by the Conference Board say they...
Summary PPI is cooling off, due largely to the fact that the big PPI surges from a year ago are being “cut off” in the annual calculation. Core PPI, excluding food, energy and trade margins, rose just 0.3% in November and 4.9% in the past 12 months. ISM announced that its ...
Summary While the downturn in global private sector business activity entered its fourth month in November, employment continued to rise. Those companies that are still hiring are also remarking on the challenges in finding staff, with the PMI Comment Trackers showing reports of labour ...
Summary Perspective is the number one biggest shortcoming in the coverage of financial and market news. I examine perspectives on inflation, rates and recessions. Lack of perspective stems from two causes: the lack of (or willingness to dig for) historical comparisons, or the...
Summary The S&P 500 (SPX) lost 3.3% of its value in the trading week ending on 9 December 2022, closing the week at 3,934.38. The S&P 500 is 18.0% below its record high peak of 4,796.56 recorded on the first trading day of 2022. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool's projectio...
Summary Recession is foretold, in our view, as central banks crush demand to bring down inflation. We think markets are wrong to expect them to later come to the rescue. U.S. stocks fell and the Treasury yield curve inverted its most since the early 1980s. We see recent moves as reflect...
Summary Avoiding envy, and its associated pitfalls, is one of the simple secrets to a successful investment portfolio. Value once again outperformed Growth in the last week. After closing below the 200-day moving average for two weeks running, the US Dollar seems firmly entrenched i...
Summary Demand destruction is weighing on prices globally as financial conditions tighten. The good news is that headline CPI is set to follow crude lower in 2023. This Wednesday, any dovish nods out of the FOMC could spark a year-end relief rally in risk markets. Demand d...
Summary Rumors were out on the Street that someone was liquidating positions and it caused a wave of selling that overwhelmed the options market. Privately traded REITs and private equity funds in general are in for a heap of trouble. Bear markets with recession fall an average of 3...
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2024-07-17 05:37:00 ET Wall Street doesn't always get things right, but Tom Lee from Fundstrat Global Advisors is one analyst with a hot hand right now. He predicted the S&P 500 index would close above 4,750 in 2023, and it ended the year at 4,769. He also entered 2024 with an S&...
2024-07-05 12:08:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-30 06:08:00 ET At the start of 2024, small cap stocks were trading for their lowest price-to-book valuations compared with their large-cap counterparts in a quarter century. And the gap has widened even further, especially as mega-cap tech stocks have continued to outperform. In...