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Summary U.S. imports of goods produced in China collapsed further in November 2022, continuing the plunge that began in September. The continuing collapse of U.S. imports from China has pulled the combined value of goods traded between the U.S. and China below a counterfactual trajector...
Summary Despite what pundits say, inflation will persist in 2023. China and emerging markets are set to rebound in the coming year. No U.S. economic recession will be seen (surprise, surprise!). U.S. equity markets will climb, helped by massive short covering. ...
Summary We already know about housing’s woes, but manufacturing, and now service-related gauges, are in contractionary territory. However, the latest jobs report continued to reveal that a rather solid labor market setting still exists. So, what if the U.S. economy manages th...
Summary After enduring one of the worst years on record across asset classes, investors should find more cause for optimism in 2023, even as the global economy faces challenges. Inflation is likely to moderate, and risks to the inflation outlook appear more balanced than they did severa...
Summary Inflation rates may be coming down for now, but it may not stay that way. Commodity prices are rising as the dollar weakens and China re-opens. If the trend continues, expect inflation to either rise or get stuck. It turns out that the weaker dollar is indeed helpi...
Summary The NFIB released its Small Business Optimism Index for December early this morning. The report showed optimism has begun to fade after a modest rebound in the past few months. The index fell back below 90.0 to the lowest level since the June of 89.5. The 2.1-point drop in t...
Summary Like any one factor, forex risk’s influence on the US stock market is dynamic. The dollar-stocks dance isn’t perfect. Indeed, sometimes the relationship is close to non-existent. The deeper the S&P 500’s 1-year decline when the US dollar’s 1-y...
Summary Looking around the globe, we find a few major stock markets with bullish setups. Most are leaning bearish to perhaps strongly bearish. The S&P 500 is currently 30 on a list of 36 country indexes, with Turkey, Poland, Italy, Denmark, and China taking the top slots. Longer...
Summary Yield curve inversion has occurred ahead of every U.S. recession since the 1950s. Today, nearly every yield term spread has inverted. Several features of the current yield curve are sending a very strong recession signal. Several characteristics of the U.S. Treas...
Summary The lag effect of monetary policy changes will surprise the Fed as the fiscal “pig” of stimulus begins to exit the economic “python.”. The massive surge in stimulus sent directly to households resulted in an unprecedented spike in “savings,...
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2024-07-17 05:37:00 ET Wall Street doesn't always get things right, but Tom Lee from Fundstrat Global Advisors is one analyst with a hot hand right now. He predicted the S&P 500 index would close above 4,750 in 2023, and it ended the year at 4,769. He also entered 2024 with an S&...
2024-07-05 12:08:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-30 06:08:00 ET At the start of 2024, small cap stocks were trading for their lowest price-to-book valuations compared with their large-cap counterparts in a quarter century. And the gap has widened even further, especially as mega-cap tech stocks have continued to outperform. In...