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2023-04-21 16:28:00 ET Summary Yesterday’s release of the Leading Economic Index from the Conference Board appears to settle the matter in favor of recession, but real-time analysis isn’t as clear-cut as this indicator suggests. The consultancy forecasts “econ...
2023-04-20 20:54:13 ET Summary The Fed says we will have a mild recession. Credit conditions are tightening just when the U.S. consumer needs credit the most in a decade. Recessionary trends are hinting at something bigger than mild. The last time the Fed said the recessio...
2023-04-20 13:09:00 ET Summary We see that the 10s/2s has been inverted since roughly July 2022, while the 10s/3mo (historically the more accurate indicator of recessions) inverted in October. The consensus is that 2023 will witness a decline in corporate earnings as economic acti...
2023-04-18 14:12:00 ET Summary The suggestion in last week’s FOMC minutes that a slight recession was a possibility later this year was widely publicized. The suggestion was initially reported as the FOMC’s view, but it was quickly corrected as having been contained ...
2023-04-18 02:25:00 ET Summary If inflation ebbs and the yield curve returns to its normal upward slope rather than being inverted, we are apt to see a change out of deposits and money market funds into longer-dated investments. If inflation ebbs and the yield curve returns to its...
2023-04-17 22:18:00 ET Summary How to recognize and prioritize market road signs. The importance of a diversified portfolio. Being nimble but keeping perspective when markets become volatile. There is no shortage of mixed signals to cloud the investment lands...
2023-04-14 11:47:00 ET Summary Recession odds have climbed considerably since Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress and the latest FOMC meeting. The Fed remains abundantly clear that it still sees inflation as a “persistent and pernicious” economic threat ...
2023-04-14 01:00:00 ET Summary Although the worst of the crisis may very well be over, you’re going to see this affect the economy through tighter lending standards. Monetary policy notoriously has long and variable lags. Dividend growers usually outperform during the e...
2023-04-13 11:45:00 ET Summary China to the rescue? The inflection in the hyperscaler capex. Commodities (copper) next in line for a potential upturn. Our take on the overly anticipated US recession - datapoints from the field. While the upcoming US recession is capt...
2023-04-13 01:57:00 ET Summary It is widely acknowledged that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has a long and variable lag, which means that it takes time for the economy to adjust to rising or falling interest rates. Despite the most recent readings for the PMI and Conferenc...
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2024-07-17 05:37:00 ET Wall Street doesn't always get things right, but Tom Lee from Fundstrat Global Advisors is one analyst with a hot hand right now. He predicted the S&P 500 index would close above 4,750 in 2023, and it ended the year at 4,769. He also entered 2024 with an S&...
2024-07-05 12:08:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-30 06:08:00 ET At the start of 2024, small cap stocks were trading for their lowest price-to-book valuations compared with their large-cap counterparts in a quarter century. And the gap has widened even further, especially as mega-cap tech stocks have continued to outperform. In...