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2023-08-17 04:54:00 ET Summary Any equity market pullback will likely be brief due to the short and shallow nature of the expected U.S. recession, and the subsequent swift recovery will demand an agile and proactive response from investors. A substantial amount of corporate bonds ...
2023-08-16 01:30:00 ET Summary One can evaluate small-cap returns as measured by the Russell 2000 Index or small-cap returns measured by the S&P 600 Index. S&P's profitability criteria seems to be an important difference in the S&P 600 Index's outperformance. Over ...
2023-08-14 20:25:00 ET Summary The 10 year Treasury yield has been in an uptrend since the summer of 2021 which is obvious to anyone who can see. The 10 year TIPS yield today is consistent with the rates that prevailed prior to the 2008 crisis and I think that means that we are fi...
2023-08-11 13:26:00 ET Summary Recent economic data is a little bit of a mixed bag, with some cracks showing in the foundation for the economy, but still an economy that’s resilient. For those that think that the recent market price action is a reason that the economy won...
2023-07-29 02:40:00 ET Summary The latest round of U.S. data has been strong, the Fed has hiked rates again, and Fed analysts apparently have thrown in the towel on recession risks. If we start to look at developed countries starting in the mid-1990s - so a 30-year historical wind...
2023-07-26 13:08:00 ET Summary For those who pay attention to risk/reward dynamics, the prospective compensation for equity risk over Treasury bonds is today the lowest since the market peak in 2007-08. US Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator (LEI below in red since 1967) c...
2023-07-25 10:00:00 ET Summary As expected, the probability that a recession will start in the U.S. economy has breached the 80% threshold over the past six weeks. On July 2023 meeting, the Fed looks set to implement another quarter-point rate hike in the Federal Funds Rate. T...
2023-07-24 06:13:43 ET Summary The yield curve, which looks at the spread between the 10-year treasury note and the year bill, has been an excellent predictor of coming recessions since 1960, with only one error made in the mid-1960s. Despite its strong track record, the yield cur...
2023-07-22 05:13:00 ET Summary The Federal Reserve has tightened monetary policy significantly over the first half of this year, with a high likelihood of another 25-basis-point hike in the federal funds rate at the end of July. Until now, market agents have mostly ignored politic...
2023-07-19 09:02:00 ET Summary Although central banks slashed benchmark rates to zero by December 2008 and pumped unprecedented liquidity (QE), financial markets tanked until March 2009. The US Fed will likely pause its tightening efforts soon. But the economic cycle and stock mar...
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2024-07-17 05:37:00 ET Wall Street doesn't always get things right, but Tom Lee from Fundstrat Global Advisors is one analyst with a hot hand right now. He predicted the S&P 500 index would close above 4,750 in 2023, and it ended the year at 4,769. He also entered 2024 with an S&...
2024-07-05 12:08:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-30 06:08:00 ET At the start of 2024, small cap stocks were trading for their lowest price-to-book valuations compared with their large-cap counterparts in a quarter century. And the gap has widened even further, especially as mega-cap tech stocks have continued to outperform. In...