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2024-06-11 08:10:00 ET Summary We've been tracking a recession forecast model developed for the Federal Reserve Board by Jonathan Wright in 2006, which utilizes the U.S. Treasury yield curve as an input, while also factoring in the level of the Federal Fund Rate. In following mont...
2024-06-01 01:45:00 ET Summary The Treasury yield curve has been inverted between the 10-year and 2-year maturities for 500 days. Prior to the current inversion, which started in 2022, the 10-2 curve has inverted on four occasions since 1987. It still may be too early to concl...
2024-05-28 10:50:00 ET Summary A broad set of US economic indicators continues to show that the odds are low that an NBER-defined recession has started or is imminent. The macro trend peaked earlier in the year and is slowing, but the current reading for April remains moderately n...
2024-05-24 11:50:00 ET Summary Wall Street economists increasingly believe the risk of recession has fallen sharply. We currently have the longest, consistent period in history where the yield spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill is inverted. ...
2024-05-13 16:20:00 ET Summary Lower financing costs and loosening credit availability can help level the playing field between small- and large-cap stocks. Smaller caps are often under researched. Also, a selective approach helps find overlooked opportunities and manage risks. ...
2024-05-10 07:50:00 ET Summary The four-week moving average of initial claims, which the Labor Department also provides, irons out the week-to-week squiggles. We’re looking for sharp increases in weekly claims for unemployment insurance benefits, and we’re looking fo...
2024-05-09 10:40:00 ET Summary There are many ways to monitor recession risk, but any one indicator in isolation is flawed. In the search of early warning signs of trouble, it’s useful to focus on the labor market, which is arguably the key driver of economic strength and w...
2024-05-09 03:05:00 ET Summary While small-cap companies are ETF’d, passive investing in this group is a sub-optimal strategy for the creation of alpha over the long term. In the United States, small- and micro-cap stocks have lagged large- and mega-cap stocks for nearly a ...
2024-05-06 23:25:50 ET Summary Vanguard's Russell 2000 Index Fund ETF warrants a sell rating due to its disadvantages compared to other peer small-cap funds. VTWO has underperformed its peers and the S&P 500 over the past decade in terms of performance and has the highest expe...
2024-05-02 09:15:47 ET More on the markets 'Sell in May and go away': Does it apply in 2024? Super Micro Computer: Strong Q3 Performance, Focus On The Cash Flows Small-Cap Stocks May Be At Risk According To NFIB Data Hedge funds tilt back into secular growth ...
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2024-06-30 06:08:00 ET At the start of 2024, small cap stocks were trading for their lowest price-to-book valuations compared with their large-cap counterparts in a quarter century. And the gap has widened even further, especially as mega-cap tech stocks have continued to outperform. In...
2024-06-22 04:44:00 ET The Russell 2000 is a barometer for small-cap stocks. It is a subset of the broader Russell 3000 , which represents the entire U.S. stock market. Specifically, the Russell 2000 measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest stocks in the Russell 3000, which co...
2024-06-15 15:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...