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2023-09-06 12:15:00 ET Summary Canada's GDP fell in the 2nd quarter due to decreased activity in housing, construction, and wildfires affecting industries. Recessions are a normal part of economic life and should not be viewed as unusual. During a recession, stock prices may d...
2023-08-17 10:30:00 ET Summary It’s been clear for some time that US recession risk has been sliding in recent months. It may turn out that Q3 data is strengthening, but that’s still a dicey proposition. For the moment, Fed funds futures are still pricing in high...
2023-08-17 04:54:00 ET Summary Any equity market pullback will likely be brief due to the short and shallow nature of the expected U.S. recession, and the subsequent swift recovery will demand an agile and proactive response from investors. A substantial amount of corporate bonds ...
2023-08-14 20:25:00 ET Summary The 10 year Treasury yield has been in an uptrend since the summer of 2021 which is obvious to anyone who can see. The 10 year TIPS yield today is consistent with the rates that prevailed prior to the 2008 crisis and I think that means that we are fi...
2023-08-11 13:26:00 ET Summary Recent economic data is a little bit of a mixed bag, with some cracks showing in the foundation for the economy, but still an economy that’s resilient. For those that think that the recent market price action is a reason that the economy won...
2023-07-29 02:40:00 ET Summary The latest round of U.S. data has been strong, the Fed has hiked rates again, and Fed analysts apparently have thrown in the towel on recession risks. If we start to look at developed countries starting in the mid-1990s - so a 30-year historical wind...
2023-07-26 13:08:00 ET Summary For those who pay attention to risk/reward dynamics, the prospective compensation for equity risk over Treasury bonds is today the lowest since the market peak in 2007-08. US Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator (LEI below in red since 1967) c...
2023-07-25 10:00:00 ET Summary As expected, the probability that a recession will start in the U.S. economy has breached the 80% threshold over the past six weeks. On July 2023 meeting, the Fed looks set to implement another quarter-point rate hike in the Federal Funds Rate. T...
2023-07-25 05:43:18 ET Summary Vanguard's Large-Cap Index Fund offers low-cost exposure to the largest US public companies, but faces a challenging environment due to the Fed's policy to combat inflation. VV has shown marginally better performance over the past decade compared to ...
2023-07-24 06:13:43 ET Summary The yield curve, which looks at the spread between the 10-year treasury note and the year bill, has been an excellent predictor of coming recessions since 1960, with only one error made in the mid-1960s. Despite its strong track record, the yield cur...
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2024-07-14 10:45:00 ET The first half of 2024 is over, and it was pretty clear: Bigger was better. To put some numbers on that, Vanguard Large-Cap ETF (NYSEMKT: VV) rose roughly 16% over the six-month span, while Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (NYSEMKT: VB) only gained 2% or so. Tha...
2024-06-25 14:12:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-15 15:12:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...