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2023-11-03 06:00:00 ET Summary The case for investing in US equities remains mixed over multiple time horizons, but in my opinion is compelling looking 3+ years ahead. Large-cap US stocks have been the major wealth creators over the past decade, and the Vanguard Large-cap Index Fu...
2023-11-02 21:00:00 ET Summary Due to rapid government spending, inventory building by the private sector and about $500B coming out of the Fed’s Reverse Repo Facility, US ‘real’ GDP grew at an annualised rate of almost 5% in Q3-2023. It has been known for a f...
2023-10-31 14:50:00 ET Summary Since July, the probability of a recession starting sometime in the next 12 months has declined. However, the U.S. treasury yield curve is still inverted and the probability of recession remains elevated. The Recession Probability Track indicates...
2023-10-27 07:45:00 ET Summary Following the September FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve reiterated its higher for longer mantra and upgraded its economic forecast to include a no recession scenario. If the average delay between the final rate increase and recession is 11 months, ...
2023-10-25 20:35:00 ET Summary With each passing day this year, it seems as though the underperformance of small caps relative to large caps keeps getting wider. While the small-cap Russell 2000 is currently down over 30% from its post-Covid highs and within 1% of a multi-year low...
2023-10-20 04:30:00 ET Summary Rising inflation precedes recessions, and monetary policy actions are pro-cyclical rather than counter-cyclical. The combination of fiscal stimulus and monetary expansion has resulted in negative net national saving, which will impair economic growth...
2023-10-19 10:30:00 ET Summary While the US economy has been resilient this year, the lagged effects of tightening are likely still to come. Inflation expectations, credit spreads, corporate credit, employment, and housing aren’t in recession territory. The yield curve,...
2023-10-18 20:55:00 ET Summary With all the attention given to the recent surge in Treasury (UST) yields, there has been an interesting by-product in the process: steepening yield curves. Remember when inverted yield curves were all the rage, and their historical track record was ...
2023-10-16 23:40:00 ET Summary The U.S. Federal Reserve has undertaken aggressive interest rate hikes in a bid to bring inflation back down to its target. In late 2022, many forecasters were warning of elevated recession risks in the near-term outlook (approximately 12-18 months a...
2023-10-14 03:55:00 ET Summary The risk of a crisis event in the economy is increasing, as the Fed’s "higher for longer" narrative is compromised by lagging economic data. The yield curve inversions occur roughly 10-24 months before a recession or crisis event. This is beca...
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2024-07-14 10:45:00 ET The first half of 2024 is over, and it was pretty clear: Bigger was better. To put some numbers on that, Vanguard Large-Cap ETF (NYSEMKT: VV) rose roughly 16% over the six-month span, while Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (NYSEMKT: VB) only gained 2% or so. Tha...
2024-06-25 14:12:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-15 15:12:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...