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2024-01-25 02:18:00 ET Summary There will be a lot of firsts for the economic history books if this business cycle can survive a labor market slowdown, 525 basis points (bps) of rate hikes and an extremely inverted U.S. Treasury yield curve. But the dovish shift from the U.S. Federal ...
2024-01-25 00:10:00 ET Summary Strong growth doesn't cause inflation, and reducing inflation doesn't require a recession. Inflation is the result of an imbalance in the supply and the demand for money. Bringing down inflation requires that the Fed address this imbalance, typically...
2024-01-24 16:39:57 ET Summary The Vanguard Large-Cap ETF is a low-cost fund that has a solid long-term performance track record (average 10-year annual return of 11.91%). However, and while I previously recommended buying the VV ETF, I have recently changed my tune. Turns out...
2024-01-24 01:13:11 ET Summary The global supply chain is facing a potential return to rising inflation due to current events in the shipping sector. Attacks on ships in the Red Sea by Houthi militants are causing significant disruptions to vessel capacity and increasing transport...
2024-01-23 12:22:00 ET Summary The resilience of the US economy in 2023 was a surprise for some economists. An intriguing explanation for why many recession models failed last year: resiliency in residential construction payrolls. Sliding employment in the housing construction...
2024-01-22 15:40:00 ET Summary The General Business Conditions index fell to -43.7, a depth only exceeded by the -78.2 reading in April of 2020 with the economy shut down for COVID. New orders (-49.4 vs -11.3) and shipments (-31.3 vs -6.4) also posted sharp declines and unfilled o...
2024-01-19 10:37:00 ET Summary Economic growth continues to defy expectations of a slowdown and recession due to continued increases in deficit spending. The U.S. Treasury recently reported the December budget deficit, which shows the U.S. collected $429 billion through various ta...
2024-01-19 08:45:00 ET Summary The US 10-year Treasury yield has been below the 3-month yield since November 2022. This rare yield inversion has preceded each recession since 1982, with no false signals. In past cycles, the US Fed stopped hiking when the yield curve inverted, ...
2024-01-17 18:53:00 ET Summary Key questions facing investors in 2024. Why US markets may lag other markets this year. Why inflation is still the northern star for investors. Investors are facing numerous uncertainties in 2024, including the state of the economy and ...
2024-01-17 14:45:00 ET Summary The sharp drop in the New York Federal Reserve’s Empire State business conditions index in January triggered a wave of warnings. The NY Fed Manufacturing Index, as it’s popularly known, is prized as an early read each month on the manuf...
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2024-07-14 10:45:00 ET The first half of 2024 is over, and it was pretty clear: Bigger was better. To put some numbers on that, Vanguard Large-Cap ETF (NYSEMKT: VV) rose roughly 16% over the six-month span, while Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (NYSEMKT: VB) only gained 2% or so. Tha...
2024-06-25 14:12:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-15 15:12:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...