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One of the ultimate paradoxes of the post-crisis environment is that "bad" news can be "good" news to the extent poor data reinforces the need for monetary accommodation, and vice versa. This is a well-known phenomenon among market participants and it's readily observable "in the wild" (if y...
Overview: The veracity of Chinese data will be questioned by economists, but today's upbeat reports round out a picture that began with stronger exports and a surge in lending. Chinese officials, we argue, had a "Draghi moment" and decided to do "whatever it takes" to strengthen the economy ...
China's Passenger Car Association reported last week that retail sales of various vehicles totaled 1.78 million units in March 2019. The total was 12% less than the number of automobiles sold in March 2018. This matches the government's data, both sets very clear as to when Chinese econo...
Recently, IMF cut global growth forecasts. As US-Sino trade talks will give way to next trade wars, new tariff wars will not resolve US deficits but will further impair global economic prospects. Ever since the US-Sino trade talks began almost four months ago, the United States has pushed ...
The era of fiat currencies and central bank printing presses has desensitized us to massive leverage and its implications. So when it is reported, for instance, that China 's private sector borrowing has risen to levels that are unprecedented in financial history, this is greeted with a colle...
By Anujeet Sareen, CFA The Bearish View of the Global Economic Cycle Federal Reserve Policy A good place to start evaluating the bearish case for global growth is to consider policy changes at the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). As we know, the Fed raised interest rates by over 200 basis...
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 9.67% during the first quarter of 2019, staging an impressive comeback following a lackluster 2018. Although the asset class has lagged behind the S&P 500 ® Index in 2019, over the past five months (or since the trough on November 1, 2018), emergi...
Alex here with your latest Friday Macro Musings… Articles I'm Reading Our friend Kean Chan put out a great writeup on the horse-racing gambler who earned nearly a billion dollars over his betting career. Kean's piece is based off a profile done by Bloomberg last year. I highly r...
China's Aggregate Financing (approximately system Credit growth less government borrowings) jumped 2.860 billion yuan, or $427 billion, during the 31 days of March ($13.8bn/day or $5.0 TN annualized). This was 55% above estimates and a full 80% ahead of March 2018. A big March placed Q1 growth...
U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin says progress is being made in talks with China to reach a trade deal, CNBC reports. More news on: Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3x Shares ETF, Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3x Shares ETF, SPDR S&P China ETF, News on the U.S. economy...