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By Raoul Leering, Head of International Trade Analysis Markets rallied earlier this week on signals that a de-escalation of the trade war is in the making. But risks are still tilted to the downside. Optimism prevails Although it has not been the prime focus of attention, US Comm...
By Bradley Krom and Brian Manby With relations between the U.S. and China remaining fluid, some investors are questioning if Chinese equities should be a part of their asset allocation. In our view, an equally important question is whether investors should have exposure to companies wher...
A week ago, when last we "spoke," I talked at length about what I called "the tragicomedy of great expectations." The gist of the discussion was that for all the talk of the US economy "decelerating," things were actually going along fairly well until ISM manufacturing dipped into contrac...
By Justin Leverenz, Team Leader and Senior Portfolio Manager Comparisons to China are plentiful when considering the Indian economy and its growth potential. While we share a lot of optimism about India, it faces challenges that demand a more circumspect approach. We have been studen...
Note: This is based on an article written for the 16th Singapore International Reinsurance Conference. The day I was writing this article, an earthquake measuring 5.8 magnitude shook Istanbul, causing panic amongst residents, evacuation of schools and public offices. It also led to t...
The biggest risk to the global economy and the international financial system is liquidity emanating out of China, Black Snow Capital founder Alexander Campbell told Real Vision’s Trade Ideas. According to Campbell, the event that leads to a liquidity crisis isn't something you...
By Jeff Weniger, CFA How emerging markets indexes are constructed matters, especially when the news cycle is dominated by Washington-Beijing relations. On Twitter, my colleagues Brad Krom and Jeremy Schwartz have focused for weeks on the performance of emerging markets' state-owned enter...
Despite trade wars and geopolitics, Chinese economic growth shows resilience. So why is there a deep gap between the third-quarter data and gloomy international headlines? After the release of third-quarter data, The Wall Street Journal headline sounded a warning: "China's economic growth ...
On October 11th, the Trump Administration declared that a partial trade deal had been reached with China. But in the following days, it became less and less clear as to what exactly the proposed "Phase one" trade deal accomplished due to conflicting statements from the U.S. and China. For in...
Key economic data continues to indicate that China is still slowing. In the video above, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale dissect recent credit growth data in China and why the country remains short of U.S. dollars. The reason credit grow...