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Summary Political Calculations' initial estimate of the market capitalization of the U.S. new home market was $24.24 billion in December 2022. Since August 2022, the Census Bureau has been reporting substantial reductions in the number of sales with each revision. Based on recent pa...
Summary U.S. housing affordability worsened considerably in 2022, driven by expensive home prices and soaring mortgage rates. With the Federal Reserve remaining focused on inflation, a quick recovery from here is unlikely - yet another headwind for the U.S. economy in 2023. U.S. hou...
Summary The first and easiest leg of the bursting of the bubble we called for a year ago is complete. While the most extreme froth has been wiped off the market, valuations are still nowhere near their long-term averages. For those with a longer horizon than average, I believe stock...
Summary With aggressive rate hikes in its war against price inflation, the Federal Reserve pricked the housing bubble and air continues to seep out. Existing home sales fall for the 11th straight month in December. Existing home sales fell faster last year than they did in 2007, 200...
Summary The debate about globalization will be interesting as companies increasingly seek alternatives to China and return to more domestic suppliers to solve their global supply chain glitches. The EV earthquake from Tesla’s price cuts is still reverberating, and it will be inte...
Summary Everyone wants to buy bonds right now because everyone knows the US is headed for recession. But neither the 10-year, the 2-year or shorter-term yields are currently falling at a pace that we would expect just prior to recession. If we go into recession you’ll make mo...
Summary The current slope of the US Treasury yield curve is inverted. Two-year yields are higher than 10-year yields, and to us that means that investors are focused on a few things. We’re starting to see a slowdown in interest-rate-sensitive sectors, most pronounced in US housin...
Summary Strains are building, and the U.S. will likely enter recession in the second half of 2023. By then, Europe will likely be emerging from recession, while China and Emerging Asia may be enjoying a COVID-reopening-inspired recovery. Segments of the inflation basket will soften rapi...
Summary Early this morning, the weekly release of mortgage purchases and refinance applications from the Mortgage Bankers Association posted outright impressive week-over-week increases for both metrics. Beginning with a look at purchases, the reading surged almost 25% week over week fo...
Summary QQQ and the S&P 500 have dropped from all-time record overvaluations a year ago but are still trading at more than double their average ratios relative to the profits of their components. Real estate has fallen modestly from its all-time highs in recent months but is about 7...
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2024-06-25 18:00:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-15 19:02:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-15 05:52:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...